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Primeira Liga

Referee: António Nobre

Sp Lisbon

S S U S U

2–0

Full-time

Arouca

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+1,2

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 48%

75%

21%

Points per game

2,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

46%

58%

Both score Ø 52%

46%

58%

Average goals

2,6

2,8

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%

15 Shots 5

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 1

9 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 14

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 2. · Arouca 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	24	20	4	0	+42	64
2	Sp Lisbon	24	18	4	2	+31	58
3	Benfica	25	18	3	4	+42	57
4	Sp Braga	25	13	7	5	+17	46
5	Gil Vicente	25	11	9	5	+11	42
6	Estoril	25	7	10	8	-2	31
7	Guimaraes	24	8	6	10	+0	30
8	Maritimo	24	7	8	9	-3	29
9	Portimonense	25	7	8	10	-3	29
10	Pacos Ferreira	24	6	9	9	-7	27
11	Famalicao	24	6	8	10	-7	26
12	Boavista	25	4	14	7	-8	26
13	Santa Clara	24	6	8	10	-15	26
14	Vizela	24	5	9	10	-14	24
15	Arouca	24	5	7	12	-20	22
16	Moreirense	24	4	8	12	-16	20
17	Tondela	24	6	2	16	-17	20
18	Belenenses	24	3	6	15	-31	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	10	2	0	+21	32
2	Sp Lisbon	12	10	1	1	+17	31
3	Benfica	12	8	1	3	+18	25
4	Sp Braga	13	7	4	2	+12	25
5	Guimaraes	11	6	2	3	+7	20
6	Gil Vicente	13	5	4	4	+4	19
7	Santa Clara	12	5	4	3	-5	19
8	Boavista	13	3	9	1	+3	18
9	Maritimo	12	3	6	3	+3	15
10	Famalicao	12	3	5	4	-1	14
11	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	5	4	-2	14
12	Vizela	13	3	5	5	-5	14
13	Moreirense	11	3	3	5	-1	12
14	Estoril	12	2	6	4	-2	12
15	Tondela	12	4	0	8	-7	12
16	Arouca	12	3	2	7	-15	11
17	Belenenses	12	3	2	7	-16	11
18	Portimonense	13	2	4	7	-7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	10	2	1	+24	32
2	Porto	12	10	2	0	+21	32
3	Sp Lisbon	12	8	3	1	+14	27
4	Gil Vicente	12	6	5	1	+7	23
5	Sp Braga	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Portimonense	12	5	4	3	+4	19
7	Estoril	13	5	4	4	+0	19
8	Maritimo	12	4	2	6	-6	14
9	Pacos Ferreira	12	3	4	5	-5	13
10	Famalicao	12	3	3	6	-6	12
11	Arouca	12	2	5	5	-5	11
12	Guimaraes	13	2	4	7	-7	10
13	Vizela	11	2	4	5	-9	10
14	Tondela	12	2	2	8	-10	8
15	Boavista	12	1	5	6	-11	8
16	Moreirense	13	1	5	7	-15	8
17	Santa Clara	12	1	4	7	-10	7
18	Belenenses	12	0	4	8	-15	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.