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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Macedo

Arouca

S S S T U

1–1

Full-time

Portimonense

T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arouca Portimonense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

Scored

2,0

0,5

Conceded

1,5

3,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-2,5

This season — Primeira Liga · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

100%

50%

Average goals

5,5

5,0

Scored

3,0

0,5

Conceded

2,5

4,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-4,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,86 xG 0,16

64% Possession 36%

21 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 2

7 Blocked shots 2

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

16 Corners 2

0 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 19

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Arouca 5. · Portimonense 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Boavista	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.8	6
2	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.3	6
3	Porto	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.8	6
4	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+2	+0.1	6
5	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.9	4
6	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.9	4
7	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+4	+0.8	3
8	Casa Pia	2	1	0	1	+2	+1.4	3
9	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
10	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.6	3
11	Estoril	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.9	3
12	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.8	3
13	Estrela	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.5	3
14	Vizela	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
15	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
16	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-4	-2.6	0
17	Farense	2	0	0	2	-4	-3.0	0
18	Portimonense	2	0	0	2	-8	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+5	+0.6	3
2	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.6	3
3	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+2	+3.0	3
4	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
5	Arouca	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
6	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
7	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
8	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
9	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
10	Estrela	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
11	Vizela	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.9	1
12	Famalicao	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
13	Sp Braga	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
14	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
15	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
16	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.5	0
17	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0
18	Farense	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
2	Casa Pia	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.5	3
3	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.5	3
4	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
5	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
6	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
7	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.3	3
8	Arouca	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
9	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
10	Benfica	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
11	Vizela	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
12	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.5	0
13	Gil Vicente	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
14	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
15	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.6	0
16	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	-3.0	0
17	Rio Ave	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.2	0
18	Portimonense	1	0	0	1	-5	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.