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Primeira Liga

Referee: José Bessa

Casa Pia

U U S U T

0–1

Full-time

Estrela

S U T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Casa Pia Estrela

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

1,7

3,0

Scored

0,7

1,2

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 7/7 matches

Win Ø 22%

29%

14%

Points per game

1,3

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

29%

43%

Both score Ø 50%

43%

57%

Average goals

1,9

2,7

Scored

1,0

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,15 xG 0,95

59% Possession 41%

7 Shots 11

2 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 6

3 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Casa Pia 10. · Estrela 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	8	7	0	1	+11	+9.4	21
2	Sp Lisbon	7	6	1	0	+9	+8.2	19
3	Sp Braga	8	5	1	2	+6	+4.0	16
4	Porto	7	5	1	1	+4	+4.5	16
5	Boavista	8	4	3	1	+5	-2.2	15
6	Guimaraes	7	4	1	2	+0	+1.3	13
7	Famalicao	7	3	3	1	+2	-3.2	12
8	Moreirense	8	3	2	3	+1	+0.0	11
9	Gil Vicente	8	3	0	5	+3	-3.8	9
10	Casa Pia	7	2	3	2	+1	+0.1	9
11	Portimonense	7	2	2	3	-8	-3.2	8
12	Farense	8	2	1	5	+0	-4.0	7
13	Chaves	8	2	1	5	-9	-2.3	7
14	Arouca	7	1	3	3	-3	-0.4	6
15	Vizela	8	1	3	4	-4	-1.0	6
16	Estrela	7	1	2	4	-5	-2.5	5
17	Rio Ave	8	1	2	5	-8	-2.6	5
18	Estoril	8	1	1	6	-5	-2.3	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	4	4	0	0	+7	+5.6	12
2	Gil Vicente	4	3	0	1	+8	-0.9	9
3	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+7	+5.2	9
4	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	+3	+2.1	9
5	Boavista	4	2	2	0	+4	+0.4	8
6	Farense	5	2	1	2	+3	-1.0	7
7	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+3	+5.1	7
8	Porto	3	2	1	0	+2	+4.7	7
9	Famalicao	3	2	1	0	+2	-2.0	7
10	Estoril	4	1	1	2	+0	-0.6	4
11	Chaves	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
12	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.0	4
13	Moreirense	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.2	4
14	Arouca	4	1	1	2	-2	+0.6	4
15	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-3	+0.2	4
16	Estrela	4	1	0	3	-3	-0.5	3
17	Casa Pia	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
18	Portimonense	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.8	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	5	4	0	1	+4	+4.2	12
2	Sp Braga	4	3	0	1	+3	-1.1	9
3	Porto	4	3	0	1	+2	-0.2	9
4	Moreirense	4	2	1	1	+2	-0.1	7
5	Sp Lisbon	3	2	1	0	+2	+2.7	7
6	Casa Pia	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.6	7
7	Boavista	4	2	1	1	+1	-2.6	7
8	Portimonense	4	2	1	1	-3	-1.4	7
9	Famalicao	4	1	2	1	+0	-1.2	5
10	Guimaraes	3	1	1	1	-3	-0.8	4
11	Chaves	4	1	0	3	-8	-3.8	3
12	Arouca	3	0	2	1	-1	-1.0	2
13	Estrela	3	0	2	1	-2	-2.1	2
14	Vizela	4	0	2	2	-3	-2.0	2
15	Rio Ave	4	0	1	3	-5	-2.8	1
16	Farense	3	0	0	3	-3	-2.9	0
17	Estoril	4	0	0	4	-5	-1.7	0
18	Gil Vicente	4	0	0	4	-5	-2.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.