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Eredivisie

Referee: J van der Laan

Utrecht

T S T S S

3–2

Full-time

Heerenveen

T S S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Utrecht Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,8

2,5

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eredivisie · 32/33 matches

Win Ø 43%

44%

42%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

47%

70%

Both score Ø 60%

56%

64%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,6

1,7

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,08 xG 1,26

41% Possession 59%

14 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Utrecht 8. · Heerenveen 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	34	27	3	4	+56	+32.9	84
2	Feyenoord	34	19	8	7	+26	+29.6	65
3	Nijmegen	34	16	11	7	+24	+14.8	59
4	Twente	34	15	13	6	+19	+27.3	58
5	Ajax	33	14	14	5	+22	+10.0	56
6	AZ Alkmaar	34	14	10	10	+7	+19.6	52
7	Heerenveen	33	14	8	11	+4	+9.2	50
8	Utrecht	32	14	7	11	+12	+4.0	49
9	Groningen	34	14	6	14	+4	+10.0	48
10	Sparta Rotterdam	34	12	7	15	-22	-8.0	43
11	For Sittard	34	11	6	17	-14	-18.9	39
12	Go Ahead Eagles	34	8	14	12	+1	-21.2	38
13	Excelsior	34	10	8	16	-13	-14.6	38
14	Telstar	34	9	10	15	-6	-12.0	37
15	Zwolle	34	9	10	15	-27	-20.4	37
16	Volendam	34	8	8	18	-20	-24.4	32
17	NAC Breda	34	6	11	17	-23	-11.5	29
18	Heracles	34	5	4	25	-50	-26.5	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	13	2	2	+32	+19.6	41
2	Feyenoord	17	11	3	3	+16	+18.7	36
3	Utrecht	16	10	2	4	+18	+11.4	32
4	Nijmegen	17	9	5	3	+16	+15.0	32
5	Twente	17	9	5	3	+13	+18.3	32
6	Ajax	16	9	4	3	+16	+14.2	31
7	AZ Alkmaar	17	8	7	2	+13	+14.7	31
8	Heerenveen	17	8	6	3	+9	+12.9	30
9	Zwolle	17	8	4	5	+0	-2.0	28
10	Go Ahead Eagles	17	6	7	4	+10	+2.8	25
11	Groningen	17	7	4	6	+9	+6.5	25
12	For Sittard	17	7	4	6	-1	-1.8	25
13	Volendam	17	6	5	6	+1	-3.8	23
14	Sparta Rotterdam	17	6	5	6	-6	+1.1	23
15	Telstar	17	5	5	7	+3	-0.8	20
16	NAC Breda	17	5	5	7	-3	+2.5	20
17	Excelsior	17	5	3	9	-2	-2.5	18
18	Heracles	17	4	3	10	-13	-7.0	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	PSV Eindhoven	17	14	1	2	+24	+13.3	43
2	Feyenoord	17	8	5	4	+10	+10.8	29
3	Nijmegen	17	7	6	4	+8	-0.2	27
4	Twente	17	6	8	3	+6	+9.0	26
5	Ajax	17	5	10	2	+6	-4.2	25
6	Groningen	17	7	2	8	-5	+3.5	23
7	AZ Alkmaar	17	6	3	8	-6	+4.9	21
8	Heerenveen	16	6	2	8	-5	-3.7	20
9	Excelsior	17	5	5	7	-11	-12.1	20
10	Sparta Rotterdam	17	6	2	9	-16	-9.1	20
11	Utrecht	16	4	5	7	-6	-7.4	17
12	Telstar	17	4	5	8	-9	-11.2	17
13	For Sittard	17	4	2	11	-13	-17.1	14
14	Go Ahead Eagles	17	2	7	8	-9	-23.9	13
15	NAC Breda	17	1	6	10	-20	-13.9	9
16	Volendam	17	2	3	12	-21	-20.6	9
17	Zwolle	17	1	6	10	-27	-18.3	9
18	Heracles	17	1	1	15	-37	-19.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.