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Premier League

Referee: M Salisbury

Brentford

U U T T T

1–1

Full-time

Aston Villa

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

17%

83%

Points per game

0,8

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,2

2,2

Conceded

1,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 40%

32%

48%

Points per game

1,4

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

48%

52%

Both score Ø 52%

55%

48%

Average goals

2,9

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,4

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,74 xG 1,74

43% Possession 57%

6 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 4

6 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Brentford 10. · Aston Villa 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	32	23	6	3	+43	+12.3	75
2	Man City	30	22	4	4	+50	+16.9	70
3	Man United	30	18	5	7	+9	+3.1	59
4	Newcastle	30	15	11	4	+24	+5.7	56
5	Tottenham	31	16	5	10	+12	+1.4	53
6	Aston Villa	31	15	5	11	+4	-1.2	50
7	Brighton	29	14	7	8	+17	+15.6	49
8	Liverpool	30	13	8	9	+20	+5.7	47
9	Fulham	31	13	6	12	+2	-5.1	45
10	Brentford	31	10	13	8	+5	+2.4	43
11	Chelsea	31	10	9	12	-3	+3.2	39
12	Crystal Palace	31	9	9	13	-9	-3.2	36
13	Wolves	31	9	7	15	-16	-5.4	34
14	Bournemouth	31	9	6	16	-28	-5.6	33
15	West Ham	30	8	7	15	-12	-1.4	31
16	Leeds	32	7	8	17	-21	-8.7	29
17	Everton	31	6	9	16	-22	-8.4	27
18	Nott'm Forest	31	6	9	16	-32	-12.1	27
19	Leicester	31	7	4	20	-14	-5.1	25
20	Southampton	32	6	6	20	-29	-9.9	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	15	13	1	1	+35	+9.9	40
2	Arsenal	16	12	3	1	+24	+9.7	39
3	Man United	15	11	3	1	+19	+7.6	36
4	Tottenham	16	11	0	5	+13	+2.4	33
5	Liverpool	14	9	4	1	+25	+7.9	31
6	Newcastle	14	8	5	1	+14	+4.1	29
7	Aston Villa	16	9	2	5	+9	+2.2	29
8	Brentford	15	7	6	2	+13	+2.5	27
9	Fulham	16	7	4	5	+1	-0.5	25
10	Brighton	14	7	3	4	+11	+8.8	24
11	Chelsea	16	6	5	5	+3	+3.9	23
12	Wolves	16	7	2	7	-4	-0.2	23
13	West Ham	16	6	4	6	+0	+2.7	22
14	Nott'm Forest	16	5	6	5	-1	-6.8	21
15	Crystal Palace	15	5	5	5	-5	-3.8	20
16	Leeds	16	5	5	6	-8	-1.4	20
17	Bournemouth	15	5	4	6	-4	-1.5	19
18	Everton	16	5	3	8	-6	-0.6	18
19	Leicester	15	3	3	9	-3	-2.5	12
20	Southampton	16	2	4	10	-15	-4.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Arsenal	16	11	3	2	+19	+2.6	36
2	Man City	15	9	3	3	+15	+7.0	30
3	Newcastle	16	7	6	3	+10	+1.6	27
4	Brighton	15	7	4	4	+6	+6.7	25
5	Man United	15	7	2	6	-10	-4.5	23
6	Aston Villa	15	6	3	6	-5	-3.4	21
7	Fulham	15	6	2	7	+1	-4.6	20
8	Tottenham	15	5	5	5	-1	-1.0	20
9	Crystal Palace	16	4	4	8	-4	+0.6	16
10	Liverpool	16	4	4	8	-5	-2.3	16
11	Chelsea	15	4	4	7	-6	-0.6	16
12	Brentford	16	3	7	6	-8	-0.2	16
13	Southampton	16	4	2	10	-14	-5.1	14
14	Bournemouth	16	4	2	10	-24	-4.1	14
15	Leicester	16	4	1	11	-11	-2.6	13
16	Wolves	15	2	5	8	-12	-5.2	11
17	West Ham	14	2	3	9	-12	-4.0	9
18	Leeds	16	2	3	11	-13	-7.3	9
19	Everton	15	1	6	8	-16	-7.9	9
20	Nott'm Forest	15	1	3	11	-31	-5.3	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.