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Premier League

Referee: D Coote

Brentford

T T S T T

1–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

S U S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Brentford Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 50%

31%

69%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 66%

63%

69%

Both score Ø 60%

56%

63%

Average goals

2,8

3,4

Scored

1,4

2,2

Conceded

1,4

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,1

+0,9

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

0,51 xG 1,42

33% Possession 67%

4 Shots 15

3 Shots on target 5

0 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 12

7 Offside 0

19 Free kicks against 6

6 Yellow cards 4

1 Red cards 1

The table before the match Brentford 13. · Aston Villa 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Liverpool	16	11	4	1	+21	+12.7	37
2	Arsenal	16	11	3	2	+18	+17.3	36
3	Aston Villa	16	11	2	3	+15	+7.0	35
4	Man City	17	10	4	3	+20	+15.9	34
5	Tottenham	17	10	3	4	+12	+0.7	33
6	Newcastle	17	9	2	6	+15	+13.3	29
7	Man United	16	9	0	7	-3	-1.4	27
8	Brighton	16	7	5	4	+5	+4.4	26
9	Everton	17	8	2	7	+2	+5.1	26
10	West Ham	16	7	3	6	-4	-5.5	24
11	Chelsea	17	6	4	7	+2	+9.4	22
12	Fulham	17	6	3	8	-3	-9.4	21
13	Brentford	16	5	4	7	+1	+8.9	19
14	Wolves	16	5	4	7	-5	-6.7	19
15	Bournemouth	16	5	4	7	-9	-5.7	19
16	Crystal Palace	17	4	5	8	-8	-2.3	17
17	Nott'm Forest	17	3	5	9	-13	-7.3	14
18	Luton	16	2	3	11	-15	-19.0	9
19	Burnley	17	2	2	13	-20	-13.9	8
20	Sheffield United	17	2	2	13	-31	-23.7	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Aston Villa	8	8	0	0	+20	+9.9	24
2	Newcastle	9	8	0	1	+18	+15.0	24
3	Liverpool	7	7	0	0	+16	+11.4	21
4	Arsenal	8	6	2	0	+12	+10.6	20
5	Man City	8	5	3	0	+13	+5.6	18
6	Brighton	9	4	4	1	+6	+5.0	16
7	Fulham	8	5	0	3	+8	+2.6	15
8	Tottenham	8	5	0	3	+4	+1.6	15
9	Man United	9	5	0	4	-4	+2.7	15
10	Brentford	8	3	3	2	+3	+5.8	12
11	Chelsea	9	3	3	3	+2	+7.7	12
12	Wolves	8	3	3	2	-2	-2.3	12
13	West Ham	7	3	2	2	+2	-3.0	11
14	Everton	9	3	1	5	+1	+7.1	10
15	Nott'm Forest	8	2	3	3	-1	+0.5	9
16	Bournemouth	8	2	3	3	-4	-2.8	9
17	Sheffield United	9	2	1	6	-13	-11.3	7
18	Luton	8	1	2	5	-4	-4.8	5
19	Crystal Palace	8	1	2	5	-5	-0.8	5
20	Burnley	9	1	0	8	-12	-4.8	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	9	5	3	1	+8	-0.9	18
2	Man City	9	5	1	3	+7	+10.4	16
3	Arsenal	8	5	1	2	+6	+6.7	16
4	Liverpool	9	4	4	1	+5	+1.3	16
5	Everton	8	5	1	2	+1	-2.0	16
6	West Ham	9	4	1	4	-6	-2.5	13
7	Man United	7	4	0	3	+1	-4.0	12
8	Crystal Palace	9	3	3	3	-3	-1.5	12
9	Aston Villa	8	3	2	3	-5	-2.9	11
10	Chelsea	8	3	1	4	+0	+1.7	10
11	Brighton	7	3	1	3	-1	-0.6	10
12	Bournemouth	8	3	1	4	-5	-2.9	10
13	Brentford	8	2	1	5	-2	+3.2	7
14	Wolves	8	2	1	5	-3	-4.4	7
15	Fulham	9	1	3	5	-11	-12.0	6
16	Newcastle	8	1	2	5	-3	-1.6	5
17	Burnley	8	1	2	5	-8	-9.1	5
18	Nott'm Forest	9	1	2	6	-12	-7.9	5
19	Luton	8	1	1	6	-11	-14.3	4
20	Sheffield United	8	0	1	7	-18	-12.4	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.