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Ligue 1

Referee: R Lissorgue

Le Havre

T T T T T

1–0

Full-time

Toulouse

T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Le Havre Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,3

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 25%

21%

29%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 54%

54%

Both score Ø 55%

46%

63%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,0

1,1

Conceded

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,18 xG 0,29

50% Possession 50%

12 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 0

4 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 3

1 Offside 3

12 Free kicks against 17

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Le Havre 16. · Toulouse 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	25	16	8	1	+35	+21.4	56
2	Brest	25	13	7	5	+16	+9.1	46
3	Monaco	24	12	6	6	+10	+4.3	42
4	Lens	25	12	6	7	+10	+3.5	42
5	Lille	24	11	8	5	+14	+11.5	41
6	Nice	25	11	7	7	+5	+9.0	40
7	Marseille	24	9	9	6	+12	+18.2	36
8	Rennes	24	9	8	7	+7	+9.1	35
9	Reims	25	10	5	10	-2	+4.7	35
10	Lyon	25	9	4	12	-11	-5.3	31
11	Toulouse	24	7	8	9	-5	-8.2	29
12	Montpellier	25	6	9	10	-5	-0.4	27
13	Strasbourg	24	6	8	10	-12	-4.3	26
14	Nantes	24	7	4	13	-13	-10.9	25
15	Lorient	25	6	7	12	-14	-12.6	25
16	Le Havre	24	5	9	10	-7	-12.5	24
17	Metz	24	5	5	14	-16	-16.3	20
18	Clermont	24	3	8	13	-24	-20.3	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	13	8	4	1	+19	+14.3	28
2	Lille	11	8	2	1	+17	+15.2	26
3	Marseille	12	7	5	0	+15	+15.4	26
4	Brest	12	7	4	1	+12	+11.6	25
5	Nice	13	7	4	2	+8	+8.3	25
6	Lens	12	7	2	3	+8	+6.8	23
7	Rennes	13	6	3	4	+8	+10.7	21
8	Monaco	12	6	2	4	+7	+5.9	20
9	Reims	12	5	2	5	-1	+4.8	17
10	Strasbourg	12	4	3	5	-3	+0.7	15
11	Lyon	13	4	3	6	-7	+0.2	15
12	Toulouse	12	3	5	4	+1	+3.1	14
13	Montpellier	13	2	8	3	+1	+6.5	14
14	Le Havre	11	4	2	5	+1	+2.2	14
15	Lorient	13	3	4	6	-4	-5.8	13
16	Nantes	13	3	3	7	-5	-3.4	12
17	Clermont	12	1	4	7	-13	-7.4	7
18	Metz	11	1	3	7	-5	-2.1	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	12	8	4	0	+16	+7.2	28
2	Monaco	12	6	4	2	+3	-1.6	22
3	Brest	13	6	3	4	+4	-2.5	21
4	Lens	13	5	4	4	+2	-3.3	19
5	Reims	13	5	3	5	-1	-0.1	18
6	Lyon	12	5	1	6	-4	-5.5	16
7	Lille	13	3	6	4	-3	-3.7	15
8	Nice	12	4	3	5	-3	+0.7	15
9	Toulouse	12	4	3	5	-6	-11.3	15
10	Rennes	11	3	5	3	-1	-1.6	14
11	Metz	13	4	2	7	-11	-14.1	14
12	Montpellier	12	4	1	7	-6	-6.9	13
13	Nantes	11	4	1	6	-8	-7.5	13
14	Lorient	12	3	3	6	-10	-6.9	12
15	Strasbourg	12	2	5	5	-9	-5.0	11
16	Marseille	12	2	4	6	-3	+2.8	10
17	Le Havre	13	1	7	5	-8	-14.6	10
18	Clermont	12	2	4	6	-11	-12.9	10

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.