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Ligue 1

Referee: J Pignard

Marseille

T S T T T

3–2

Full-time

Toulouse

S S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Marseille Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

3,5

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 45%

56%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

63%

48%

Both score Ø 58%

63%

52%

Average goals

3,3

2,5

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,01 xG 1,23

67% Possession 33%

9 Shots 8

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 1

3 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Marseille 3. · Toulouse 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	28	23	5	0	+54	+48.6	74
2	Monaco	28	15	5	8	+19	+33.7	50
3	Marseille	27	15	4	8	+18	+12.3	49
4	Strasbourg	28	14	7	7	+11	-5.9	49
5	Lyon	28	14	6	8	+16	+8.9	48
6	Nice	28	13	8	7	+17	+16.7	47
7	Lille	28	13	8	7	+12	+8.2	47
8	Brest	28	13	4	11	+1	-8.1	43
9	Lens	28	12	6	10	+2	+4.1	42
10	Auxerre	28	10	8	10	+0	-9.8	38
11	Toulouse	27	9	7	11	+2	+10.5	34
12	Rennes	28	10	2	16	+0	+1.6	32
13	Nantes	28	7	9	12	-14	-15.7	30
14	Angers	28	7	6	15	-20	-16.8	27
15	Le Havre	28	8	3	17	-26	-15.0	27
16	Reims	28	6	8	14	-13	-17.6	26
17	St Etienne	28	6	5	17	-36	-33.8	23
18	Montpellier	28	4	3	21	-43	-22.1	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	12	2	0	+28	+25.8	38
2	Monaco	14	10	2	2	+17	+22.5	32
3	Lille	14	9	3	2	+10	+1.9	30
4	Lyon	14	9	2	3	+12	+8.7	29
5	Nice	14	8	4	2	+15	+13.8	28
6	Strasbourg	13	8	4	1	+11	-0.1	28
7	Brest	14	8	3	3	+9	+0.9	27
8	Auxerre	14	7	5	2	+10	+3.5	26
9	Marseille	13	6	4	3	+8	+12.8	22
10	Rennes	15	7	1	7	+5	+3.6	22
11	Lens	14	6	2	6	-1	+6.0	20
12	St Etienne	13	5	2	6	-7	-6.7	17
13	Nantes	13	4	4	5	-1	+0.8	16
14	Toulouse	14	4	4	6	-2	+2.8	16
15	Reims	15	3	4	8	-7	-6.8	13
16	Montpellier	15	3	3	9	-21	-5.7	12
17	Angers	14	3	2	9	-16	-12.6	11
18	Le Havre	14	3	1	10	-20	-8.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	11	3	0	+26	+22.8	36
2	Marseille	14	9	0	5	+10	-0.5	27
3	Lens	14	6	4	4	+3	-1.9	22
4	Strasbourg	15	6	3	6	+0	-5.8	21
5	Lyon	14	5	4	5	+4	+0.3	19
6	Nice	14	5	4	5	+2	+2.9	19
7	Toulouse	13	5	3	5	+4	+7.7	18
8	Monaco	14	5	3	6	+2	+11.2	18
9	Lille	14	4	5	5	+2	+6.3	17
10	Le Havre	14	5	2	7	-6	-6.9	17
11	Angers	14	4	4	6	-4	-4.2	16
12	Brest	14	5	1	8	-8	-9.0	16
13	Nantes	15	3	5	7	-13	-16.5	14
14	Reims	13	3	4	6	-6	-10.9	13
15	Auxerre	14	3	3	8	-10	-13.3	12
16	Rennes	13	3	1	9	-5	-2.0	10
17	St Etienne	15	1	3	11	-29	-27.1	6
18	Montpellier	13	1	0	12	-22	-16.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.