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Ligue 1

Referee: R Lissorgue

Lens

T T S S T

1–0

Full-time

St Etienne

U T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lens St Etienne

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 58%

33%

83%

Average goals

2,7

4,5

Scored

1,0

1,5

Conceded

1,7

3,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 32%

41%

22%

Points per game

1,4

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

30%

52%

Both score Ø 45%

37%

52%

Average goals

2,3

3,4

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,1

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,18 xG 1,42

61% Possession 39%

20 Shots 8

5 Shots on target 3

7 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 3

7 Offside 0

14 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lens 9. · St Etienne 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	28	23	5	0	+54	+48.6	74
2	Monaco	28	15	5	8	+19	+33.7	50
3	Marseille	27	15	4	8	+18	+12.3	49
4	Lyon	28	14	6	8	+16	+8.9	48
5	Nice	28	13	8	7	+17	+16.7	47
6	Lille	28	13	8	7	+12	+8.2	47
7	Strasbourg	27	13	7	7	+10	-7.0	46
8	Brest	28	13	4	11	+1	-8.1	43
9	Lens	27	11	6	10	+1	+3.4	39
10	Auxerre	27	9	8	10	-1	-9.3	35
11	Toulouse	27	9	7	11	+2	+10.5	34
12	Rennes	27	10	2	15	+1	+1.1	32
13	Nantes	28	7	9	12	-14	-15.7	30
14	Angers	28	7	6	15	-20	-16.8	27
15	Reims	27	6	8	13	-12	-16.5	26
16	Le Havre	27	7	3	17	-28	-15.3	24
17	St Etienne	27	6	5	16	-35	-33.0	23
18	Montpellier	27	4	3	20	-41	-21.8	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	12	2	0	+28	+25.8	38
2	Monaco	14	10	2	2	+17	+22.5	32
3	Lille	14	9	3	2	+10	+1.9	30
4	Lyon	14	9	2	3	+12	+8.7	29
5	Nice	14	8	4	2	+15	+13.8	28
6	Strasbourg	13	8	4	1	+11	-0.1	28
7	Brest	14	8	3	3	+9	+0.9	27
8	Auxerre	14	7	5	2	+10	+3.5	26
9	Marseille	13	6	4	3	+8	+12.8	22
10	Rennes	14	7	1	6	+6	+3.1	22
11	Lens	13	5	2	6	-2	+5.3	17
12	St Etienne	13	5	2	6	-7	-6.7	17
13	Nantes	13	4	4	5	-1	+0.8	16
14	Toulouse	14	4	4	6	-2	+2.8	16
15	Reims	14	3	4	7	-6	-5.7	13
16	Montpellier	14	3	3	8	-19	-5.4	12
17	Angers	14	3	2	9	-16	-12.6	11
18	Le Havre	14	3	1	10	-20	-8.1	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	14	11	3	0	+26	+22.8	36
2	Marseille	14	9	0	5	+10	-0.5	27
3	Lens	14	6	4	4	+3	-1.9	22
4	Lyon	14	5	4	5	+4	+0.3	19
5	Nice	14	5	4	5	+2	+2.9	19
6	Toulouse	13	5	3	5	+4	+7.7	18
7	Monaco	14	5	3	6	+2	+11.2	18
8	Strasbourg	14	5	3	6	-1	-6.9	18
9	Lille	14	4	5	5	+2	+6.3	17
10	Angers	14	4	4	6	-4	-4.2	16
11	Brest	14	5	1	8	-8	-9.0	16
12	Le Havre	13	4	2	7	-8	-7.3	14
13	Nantes	15	3	5	7	-13	-16.5	14
14	Reims	13	3	4	6	-6	-10.9	13
15	Rennes	13	3	1	9	-5	-2.0	10
16	Auxerre	13	2	3	8	-11	-12.9	9
17	St Etienne	14	1	3	10	-28	-26.3	6
18	Montpellier	13	1	0	12	-22	-16.4	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.