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Ligue 1

Referee: B Dechepy

Lorient

S T S T T

0–3

Full-time

Marseille

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Marseille

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

4,3

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,8

Conceded

2,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 39%

23%

54%

Points per game

1,0

1,9

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

43%

Both score Ø 51%

51%

Average goals

2,7

2,6

Scored

1,0

1,6

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

31% Possession 69%

7 Shots 9

0 Shots on target 6

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

4 Corners 8

1 Offside 0

22 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lorient 17. · Marseille 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	35	24	7	4	+45	79
2	Monaco	36	19	8	9	+23	65
3	Marseille	35	19	8	8	+20	65
4	Rennes	35	19	5	11	+41	62
5	Nice	35	18	7	10	+15	61
6	Strasbourg	36	16	12	8	+20	60
7	Lens	36	16	10	10	+12	58
8	Lyon	36	15	11	10	+13	56
9	Nantes	35	14	9	12	+7	51
10	Lille	36	13	12	11	-2	51
11	Brest	36	13	9	14	-4	48
12	Reims	36	10	13	13	-1	43
13	Montpellier	36	12	7	17	-6	43
14	Angers	36	9	11	16	-12	38
15	Troyes	35	9	9	17	-14	36
16	Clermont	36	9	9	18	-29	36
17	Lorient	35	8	10	17	-25	34
18	St Etienne	35	7	10	18	-32	31
19	Metz	36	5	13	18	-30	28
20	Bordeaux	36	5	12	19	-41	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	15	2	0	+32	47
2	Rennes	18	13	1	4	+35	40
3	Monaco	18	11	4	3	+20	37
4	Strasbourg	18	10	5	3	+17	35
5	Lyon	18	10	5	3	+16	35
6	Lens	18	9	6	3	+15	33
7	Nantes	17	10	3	4	+12	33
8	Nice	17	9	4	4	+6	31
9	Marseille	18	8	5	5	+7	29
10	Lille	18	7	7	4	+2	28
11	Montpellier	18	7	5	6	+5	26
12	Brest	18	7	4	7	+1	25
13	Lorient	17	6	5	6	+1	23
14	Angers	18	7	2	9	-2	23
15	Troyes	18	5	7	6	+2	22
16	Reims	18	5	6	7	+3	21
17	Clermont	18	4	6	8	-10	18
18	St Etienne	18	4	6	8	-13	18
19	Bordeaux	18	3	6	9	-8	15
20	Metz	18	2	7	9	-11	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Marseille	17	11	3	3	+13	36
2	Paris SG	18	9	5	4	+13	32
3	Nice	18	9	3	6	+9	30
4	Monaco	18	8	4	6	+3	28
5	Strasbourg	18	6	7	5	+3	25
6	Lens	18	7	4	7	-3	25
7	Lille	18	6	5	7	-4	23
8	Brest	18	6	5	7	-5	23
9	Rennes	17	6	4	7	+6	22
10	Reims	18	5	7	6	-4	22
11	Lyon	18	5	6	7	-3	21
12	Nantes	18	4	6	8	-5	18
13	Clermont	18	5	3	10	-19	18
14	Montpellier	18	5	2	11	-11	17
15	Angers	18	2	9	7	-10	15
16	Metz	18	3	6	9	-19	15
17	Troyes	17	4	2	11	-16	14
18	St Etienne	17	3	4	10	-19	13
19	Bordeaux	18	2	6	10	-33	12
20	Lorient	18	2	5	11	-26	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.