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Ligue 1

Referee: Stephane Lannoy

Lorient

U U T T S

1–1

Full-time

Toulouse

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lorient Toulouse

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,7

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,7

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,3

This season — Ligue 1 · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 26%

30%

21%

Points per game

1,3

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 52%

55%

48%

Both score Ø 61%

70%

52%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

58% Possession 42%

11 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 2

4 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lorient 13. · Toulouse 19. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	34	27	5	2	+71	86
2	Lyon	34	16	8	10	+20	56
3	Monaco	33	14	13	6	+8	55
4	Nice	34	15	9	10	+13	54
5	Rennes	33	13	12	8	+8	51
6	St Etienne	33	15	6	12	+5	51
7	Lille	33	12	13	8	+8	49
8	Angers	33	12	10	11	+3	46
9	Caen	34	14	4	16	-15	46
10	Nantes	33	11	11	11	-5	44
11	Bastia	33	12	7	14	-6	43
12	Bordeaux	33	10	13	10	-9	43
13	Lorient	33	10	12	11	-6	42
14	Marseille	33	8	16	9	+5	40
15	Guingamp	33	10	9	14	-10	39
16	Montpellier	33	10	7	16	-4	37
17	Reims	33	9	9	15	-11	36
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	33	7	13	13	-14	34
19	Toulouse	33	7	11	15	-11	32
20	Troyes	33	2	8	23	-50	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	13	3	1	+39	42
2	Lyon	17	10	4	3	+20	34
3	Nice	17	10	2	5	+12	32
4	Bastia	17	10	2	5	+9	32
5	Lille	17	9	4	4	+10	31
6	St Etienne	16	9	3	4	+9	30
7	Monaco	16	7	6	3	+7	27
8	Bordeaux	16	7	6	3	+6	27
9	Angers	17	6	8	3	+7	26
10	Nantes	16	7	5	4	+2	26
11	Caen	17	8	2	7	-5	26
12	Lorient	16	6	6	4	+5	24
13	Guingamp	17	6	6	5	+4	24
14	Rennes	16	6	6	4	+4	24
15	Reims	17	6	5	6	+3	23
16	Toulouse	17	5	7	5	+8	22
17	Montpellier	17	7	0	10	-2	21
18	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	16	4	7	5	-4	19
19	Marseille	17	2	10	5	+2	16
20	Troyes	16	0	6	10	-22	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	14	2	1	+32	44
2	Monaco	17	7	7	3	+1	28
3	Rennes	17	7	6	4	+4	27
4	Marseille	16	6	6	4	+3	24
5	Nice	17	5	7	5	+1	22
6	Lyon	17	6	4	7	+0	22
7	St Etienne	17	6	3	8	-4	21
8	Angers	16	6	2	8	-4	20
9	Caen	17	6	2	9	-10	20
10	Lille	16	3	9	4	-2	18
11	Nantes	17	4	6	7	-7	18
12	Lorient	17	4	6	7	-11	18
13	Montpellier	16	3	7	6	-2	16
14	Bordeaux	17	3	7	7	-15	16
15	Gazelec FC Ajaccio	17	3	6	8	-10	15
16	Guingamp	16	4	3	9	-14	15
17	Reims	16	3	4	9	-14	13
18	Bastia	16	2	5	9	-15	11
19	Toulouse	16	2	4	10	-19	10
20	Troyes	17	2	2	13	-28	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.