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Ligue 1
Referee: Stephane Jochem
Toulouse
U T T S S
2–3
Full-time
Lorient
U S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lorient
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 25%
33%
17%
Points per game
1,2
1,2
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
50%
50%
Both score Ø 50%
17%
83%
Average goals
2,8
2,7
Scored
1,0
1,5
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
-0,8
+0,3
This season — Ligue 1 · 16/16 matches
Win Ø 25%
19%
31%
Points per game
0,9
1,4
Over 2.5 Ø 53%
56%
50%
Both score Ø 66%
56%
75%
Average goals
2,8
2,8
Scored
1,1
1,5
Conceded
1,8
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

55% Possession 45%
20 Shots 5
3 Shots on target 4
6 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 1
10 Corners 2
3 Offside 0
0 Free kicks against 0
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Toulouse 19. · Lorient 9.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 17 14 3 0 +32 45
2 Angers 17 8 6 3 +7 30
3 Caen 16 9 2 5 +3 29
4 Lyon 17 7 5 5 +5 26
5 Nice 17 7 4 6 +8 25
6 Monaco 16 6 7 3 +0 25
7 St Etienne 16 8 1 7 +0 25
8 Marseille 16 6 4 6 +7 22
9 Lorient 16 5 7 4 +3 22
10 Rennes 16 5 7 4 +2 22
11 Nantes 16 6 3 7 -3 21
12 Reims 16 5 4 7 -3 19
13 Gazelec FC Ajaccio 16 5 4 7 -3 19
14 Guingamp 16 5 4 7 -6 19
15 Montpellier 16 5 3 8 -3 18
16 Bastia 16 5 3 8 -5 18
17 Bordeaux 16 4 6 6 -6 18
18 Lille 16 3 8 5 -2 17
19 Toulouse 16 3 6 7 -11 15
20 Troyes 16 0 5 11 -25 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Toulouse Lorient
Yann Bodiger 🟨
20′
27′
🟨 Benjamin Jeannot
1–0 J. Kana-Biyik
J. Akpa Akpro
41′
Half-time 1–0
46′
🟨 François Bellugou
47′
B. Jeannot 1–1
M. Barthelmé
48′
B. Jeannot 1–2
W. Mesloub
2–2 W. Ben Yedder
Z. Machach
59′
M. Braithwaite 🔁
↦ A. Pešić
66′
69′
🔁 V. Lavigne
↦ M. Barthelmé
73′
🔁 B. Moukandjo
↦ B. Jeannot
76′
W. Mesloub 2–3
T. Doumbia 🔁
↦ Z. Machach
78′
79′
🔁 R. Mulumba
↦ W. Mesloub
A. Regattin 🔁
↦ J. Akpa Akpro
82′
Full-time 2–3

Line-ups

Toulouse

40 A. Lafont G
6 William Matheus D
3 J. Kana-Biyik D
7 J. Akpa Akpro M
33 I. Diop D
18 O. Trejo M
19 Somália M
23 Y. Bodiger M
13 Z. Machach M
11 A. Pešić F
10 W. Ben Yedder F
Bench (7)
9 M. Braithwaite
4 T. Doumbia
17 A. Regattin
1 M. Goicoechea
14 P. Sirieix
15 U. Spajić
27 A. Blin

Lorient

40 B. Lecomte G
2 L. Koné D
6 F. Bellugou M
25 L. Gassama D
5 Z. Touré D
4 V. Le Goff D
17 W. Mesloub M
28 M. Barthelmé M
19 R. Philippoteaux M
7 D. Ndong M
22 B. Jeannot F
Bench (7)
31 V. Lavigne
12 B. Moukandjo
21 R. Mulumba
8 Y. Jouffre
14 Raphaël Guerreiro
29 P. Paye
30 F. Chaigneau

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Stephane Jochem · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,4 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
15,1 / match
Below average

🟥 Red cards: 0,21 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.