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Ligue 1

Referee: Karim Abed

Toulouse

U T T S T

3–2

Full-time

Lorient

T T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Toulouse Lorient

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

50%

100%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,2

3,8

Scored

0,7

1,7

Conceded

1,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 29%

38%

19%

Points per game

1,4

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 57%

50%

63%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,1

2,8

Scored

1,1

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,1

-0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

37% Possession 63%

10 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 8

1 Blocked shots 4

6 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 8

3 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 5

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Toulouse 9. · Lorient 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	17	12	3	2	+37	39
2	Nice	16	12	3	1	+20	39
3	Paris SG	16	11	2	3	+19	35
4	Rennes	16	8	3	5	-1	27
5	Guingamp	16	7	5	4	+6	26
6	Lyon	15	8	1	6	+10	25
7	Marseille	17	6	6	5	+0	24
8	Bordeaux	17	6	6	5	-2	24
9	Toulouse	16	6	4	6	+2	22
10	St Etienne	16	5	7	4	+2	22
11	Angers	16	5	4	7	-3	19
12	Montpellier	16	4	7	5	-5	19
13	Metz	15	5	3	7	-13	18
14	Lille	16	5	2	9	-6	17
15	Dijon	17	3	7	7	-4	16
16	Nancy	16	4	4	8	-10	16
17	Caen	16	4	3	9	-14	15
18	Bastia	16	3	5	8	-8	14
19	Nantes	16	3	4	9	-17	13
20	Lorient	16	3	3	10	-13	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Nice	9	7	2	0	+15	23
2	Rennes	9	7	2	0	+10	23
3	Monaco	8	7	1	0	+25	22
4	Paris SG	8	6	2	0	+16	20
5	Marseille	8	5	3	0	+8	18
6	Guingamp	8	5	2	1	+5	17
7	Toulouse	7	5	0	2	+7	15
8	Montpellier	8	4	3	1	+6	15
9	Bordeaux	9	4	2	3	-2	14
10	Caen	8	4	2	2	-3	14
11	Dijon	9	3	4	2	+4	13
12	St Etienne	8	3	4	1	+4	13
13	Lyon	7	4	0	3	+4	12
14	Angers	8	3	3	2	+2	12
15	Lille	8	4	0	4	-1	12
16	Nancy	8	3	1	4	+0	10
17	Bastia	8	2	4	2	+0	10
18	Lorient	8	3	1	4	-6	10
19	Metz	7	2	2	3	-9	8
20	Nantes	8	1	3	4	-10	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Monaco	9	5	2	2	+12	17
2	Nice	7	5	1	1	+5	16
3	Paris SG	8	5	0	3	+3	15
4	Lyon	8	4	1	3	+6	13
5	Bordeaux	8	2	4	2	+0	10
6	Metz	8	3	1	4	-4	10
7	Guingamp	8	2	3	3	+1	9
8	St Etienne	8	2	3	3	-2	9
9	Angers	8	2	1	5	-5	7
10	Toulouse	9	1	4	4	-5	7
11	Nantes	8	2	1	5	-7	7
12	Marseille	9	1	3	5	-8	6
13	Nancy	8	1	3	4	-10	6
14	Lille	8	1	2	5	-5	5
15	Bastia	8	1	1	6	-8	4
16	Montpellier	8	0	4	4	-11	4
17	Rennes	7	1	1	5	-11	4
18	Dijon	8	0	3	5	-8	3
19	Lorient	8	0	2	6	-7	2
20	Caen	8	0	1	7	-11	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.