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Ligue 1

Referee: E Wattellier

Metz

T U T T U

3–2

Full-time

Lyon

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Metz Lyon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

0,3

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,5

4,5

Scored

0,8

3,2

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,8

This season — Ligue 1 · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 27%

11%

43%

Points per game

0,7

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

49%

51%

Both score Ø 59%

51%

66%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,9

1,7

Conceded

1,8

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

36% Possession 64%

15 Shots 17

8 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

19 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Metz 20. · Lyon 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	35	24	7	4	+45	79
2	Monaco	36	19	8	9	+23	65
3	Marseille	35	19	8	8	+20	65
4	Rennes	35	19	5	11	+41	62
5	Nice	35	18	7	10	+15	61
6	Strasbourg	36	16	12	8	+20	60
7	Lyon	35	15	11	9	+14	56
8	Lens	35	15	10	10	+11	55
9	Nantes	35	14	9	12	+7	51
10	Lille	36	13	12	11	-2	51
11	Brest	36	13	9	14	-4	48
12	Reims	35	10	13	12	+0	43
13	Montpellier	35	12	7	16	-5	43
14	Troyes	35	9	9	17	-14	36
15	Angers	35	8	11	16	-15	35
16	Lorient	35	8	10	17	-25	34
17	Clermont	35	8	9	18	-30	33
18	St Etienne	35	7	10	18	-32	31
19	Bordeaux	35	5	12	18	-38	27
20	Metz	35	4	13	18	-31	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	15	2	0	+32	47
2	Rennes	18	13	1	4	+35	40
3	Monaco	18	11	4	3	+20	37
4	Strasbourg	18	10	5	3	+17	35
5	Lyon	18	10	5	3	+16	35
6	Lens	18	9	6	3	+15	33
7	Nantes	17	10	3	4	+12	33
8	Nice	17	9	4	4	+6	31
9	Marseille	18	8	5	5	+7	29
10	Lille	18	7	7	4	+2	28
11	Montpellier	18	7	5	6	+5	26
12	Brest	18	7	4	7	+1	25
13	Lorient	17	6	5	6	+1	23
14	Troyes	18	5	7	6	+2	22
15	Reims	17	5	6	6	+4	21
16	Angers	17	6	2	9	-5	20
17	St Etienne	18	4	6	8	-13	18
18	Bordeaux	18	3	6	9	-8	15
19	Clermont	17	3	6	8	-11	15
20	Metz	17	1	7	9	-12	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Marseille	17	11	3	3	+13	36
2	Paris SG	18	9	5	4	+13	32
3	Nice	18	9	3	6	+9	30
4	Monaco	18	8	4	6	+3	28
5	Strasbourg	18	6	7	5	+3	25
6	Lille	18	6	5	7	-4	23
7	Brest	18	6	5	7	-5	23
8	Rennes	17	6	4	7	+6	22
9	Lens	17	6	4	7	-4	22
10	Reims	18	5	7	6	-4	22
11	Lyon	17	5	6	6	-2	21
12	Nantes	18	4	6	8	-5	18
13	Clermont	18	5	3	10	-19	18
14	Montpellier	17	5	2	10	-10	17
15	Angers	18	2	9	7	-10	15
16	Metz	18	3	6	9	-19	15
17	Troyes	17	4	2	11	-16	14
18	St Etienne	17	3	4	10	-19	13
19	Bordeaux	17	2	6	9	-30	12
20	Lorient	18	2	5	11	-26	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.