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Ligue 1

Referee: C Turpin

Montpellier

T T U T T

2–2

Full-time

Metz

T T U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Metz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,7

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,8

0,7

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-1,7

This season — Ligue 1 · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 24%

35%

12%

Points per game

1,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 46%

44%

47%

Both score Ø 49%

47%

50%

Average goals

2,9

2,6

Scored

1,4

0,9

Conceded

1,5

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,1

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%

18 Shots 17

6 Shots on target 5

6 Blocked shots 4

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 1

3 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 12. · Metz 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	35	24	7	4	+45	79
2	Marseille	34	19	8	7	+23	65
3	Rennes	35	19	5	11	+41	62
4	Monaco	34	17	8	9	+20	59
5	Nice	34	17	7	10	+14	58
6	Strasbourg	35	15	12	8	+19	57
7	Lens	35	15	10	10	+11	55
8	Lyon	34	14	11	9	+11	53
9	Nantes	35	14	9	12	+7	51
10	Lille	35	13	12	10	-1	51
11	Brest	34	12	9	13	-5	45
12	Montpellier	34	12	6	16	-5	42
13	Reims	34	9	13	12	-1	40
14	Troyes	35	9	9	17	-14	36
15	Angers	34	8	11	15	-13	35
16	Lorient	34	8	10	16	-24	34
17	Clermont	34	8	9	17	-28	33
18	St Etienne	35	7	10	18	-32	31
19	Bordeaux	34	5	12	17	-37	27
20	Metz	34	4	12	18	-31	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	17	15	2	0	+32	47
2	Rennes	18	13	1	4	+35	40
3	Strasbourg	18	10	5	3	+17	35
4	Lyon	18	10	5	3	+16	35
5	Monaco	17	10	4	3	+18	34
6	Lens	18	9	6	3	+15	33
7	Nantes	17	10	3	4	+12	33
8	Nice	17	9	4	4	+6	31
9	Marseille	17	8	5	4	+10	29
10	Lille	17	7	7	3	+3	28
11	Montpellier	17	7	4	6	+5	25
12	Lorient	16	6	5	5	+2	23
13	Troyes	18	5	7	6	+2	22
14	Brest	16	6	4	6	+0	22
15	Reims	17	5	6	6	+4	21
16	Angers	17	6	2	9	-5	20
17	St Etienne	18	4	6	8	-13	18
18	Bordeaux	17	3	6	8	-7	15
19	Clermont	17	3	6	8	-11	15
20	Metz	17	1	7	9	-12	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Marseille	17	11	3	3	+13	36
2	Paris SG	18	9	5	4	+13	32
3	Nice	17	8	3	6	+8	27
4	Monaco	17	7	4	6	+2	25
5	Lille	18	6	5	7	-4	23
6	Brest	18	6	5	7	-5	23
7	Rennes	17	6	4	7	+6	22
8	Strasbourg	17	5	7	5	+2	22
9	Lens	17	6	4	7	-4	22
10	Reims	17	4	7	6	-5	19
11	Nantes	18	4	6	8	-5	18
12	Lyon	16	4	6	6	-5	18
13	Clermont	17	5	3	9	-17	18
14	Montpellier	17	5	2	10	-10	17
15	Angers	17	2	9	6	-8	15
16	Troyes	17	4	2	11	-16	14
17	Metz	17	3	5	9	-19	14
18	St Etienne	17	3	4	10	-19	13
19	Bordeaux	17	2	6	9	-30	12
20	Lorient	18	2	5	11	-26	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.