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Premier League

Referee: S Attwell

Man City

S U S S S

5–0

Full-time

Newcastle

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Newcastle

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,5

Scored

2,7

1,3

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+2,2

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 34/35 matches

Win Ø 54%

76%

31%

Points per game

2,4

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

56%

46%

Both score Ø 46%

35%

57%

Average goals

3,1

2,7

Scored

2,5

1,1

Conceded

0,6

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,9

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

71% Possession 29%

21 Shots 7

9 Shots on target 3

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 4

6 Free kicks against 11

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Newcastle 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	35	25	8	2	+64	83
2	Man City	34	26	5	3	+63	83
3	Chelsea	35	19	10	6	+39	67
4	Arsenal	35	21	3	11	+14	66
5	Tottenham	35	19	5	11	+20	62
6	Man United	37	16	10	11	+1	58
7	West Ham	36	16	7	13	+11	55
8	Wolves	35	15	5	15	+1	50
9	Brighton	36	11	14	11	-4	47
10	Crystal Palace	35	10	14	11	+4	44
11	Aston Villa	34	13	4	17	+0	43
12	Brentford	36	12	7	17	-8	43
13	Newcastle	35	11	10	14	-16	43
14	Leicester	34	11	9	14	-7	42
15	Southampton	36	9	13	14	-20	40
16	Everton	34	10	5	19	-19	35
17	Burnley	35	7	13	15	-17	34
18	Leeds	35	8	10	17	-35	34
19	Watford	35	6	4	25	-38	22
20	Norwich	35	5	6	24	-53	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	4	0	+38	46
2	Man City	17	13	2	2	+37	41
3	Arsenal	18	12	2	4	+14	38
4	Man United	19	10	5	4	+10	35
5	Tottenham	17	11	1	5	+15	34
6	West Ham	18	9	4	5	+7	31
7	Chelsea	17	8	6	3	+14	30
8	Leicester	17	8	4	5	+5	28
9	Newcastle	18	7	6	5	-3	27
10	Crystal Palace	18	6	8	4	+9	26
11	Everton	17	8	2	7	+2	26
12	Southampton	18	6	7	5	+0	25
13	Brentford	18	7	3	8	+2	24
14	Wolves	17	7	2	8	-1	23
15	Aston Villa	16	6	3	7	+1	21
16	Burnley	18	5	6	7	-6	21
17	Brighton	18	4	7	7	-6	19
18	Leeds	17	4	5	8	-16	17
19	Norwich	18	3	3	12	-26	12
20	Watford	17	2	1	14	-25	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	13	3	1	+26	42
2	Liverpool	17	11	4	2	+26	37
3	Chelsea	18	11	4	3	+25	37
4	Tottenham	18	8	4	6	+5	28
5	Brighton	18	7	7	4	+2	28
6	Arsenal	17	9	1	7	+0	28
7	Wolves	18	8	3	7	+2	27
8	West Ham	18	7	3	8	+4	24
9	Man United	18	6	5	7	-9	23
10	Aston Villa	18	7	1	10	-1	22
11	Brentford	18	5	4	9	-10	19
12	Crystal Palace	17	4	6	7	-5	18
13	Leeds	18	4	5	9	-19	17
14	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-13	16
15	Watford	18	4	3	11	-13	15
16	Southampton	18	3	6	9	-20	15
17	Leicester	17	3	5	9	-12	14
18	Burnley	17	2	7	8	-11	13
19	Everton	17	2	3	12	-21	9
20	Norwich	17	2	3	12	-27	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.