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Premier League

Referee: C Kavanagh

Arsenal

T T S S S

2–1

Full-time

Leeds

S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Arsenal Leeds

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,2

This season — Premier League · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 42%

59%

24%

Points per game

1,9

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 61%

56%

65%

Both score Ø 49%

41%

56%

Average goals

2,8

3,2

Scored

1,6

1,1

Conceded

1,2

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,4

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

63% Possession 37%

19 Shots 3

9 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 15

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Arsenal 4. · Leeds 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	35	25	8	2	+64	83
2	Man City	34	26	5	3	+63	83
3	Chelsea	35	19	10	6	+39	67
4	Arsenal	34	20	3	11	+13	63
5	Tottenham	35	19	5	11	+20	62
6	Man United	37	16	10	11	+1	58
7	West Ham	35	15	7	13	+7	52
8	Wolves	35	15	5	15	+1	50
9	Brighton	36	11	14	11	-4	47
10	Crystal Palace	35	10	14	11	+4	44
11	Aston Villa	34	13	4	17	+0	43
12	Brentford	36	12	7	17	-8	43
13	Newcastle	35	11	10	14	-16	43
14	Leicester	33	11	9	13	-6	42
15	Southampton	36	9	13	14	-20	40
16	Burnley	35	7	13	15	-17	34
17	Leeds	34	8	10	16	-34	34
18	Everton	33	9	5	19	-20	32
19	Watford	35	6	4	25	-38	22
20	Norwich	34	5	6	23	-49	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	18	14	4	0	+38	46
2	Man City	17	13	2	2	+37	41
3	Arsenal	17	11	2	4	+13	35
4	Man United	19	10	5	4	+10	35
5	Tottenham	17	11	1	5	+15	34
6	West Ham	18	9	4	5	+7	31
7	Chelsea	17	8	6	3	+14	30
8	Leicester	16	8	4	4	+6	28
9	Newcastle	18	7	6	5	-3	27
10	Crystal Palace	18	6	8	4	+9	26
11	Everton	17	8	2	7	+2	26
12	Southampton	18	6	7	5	+0	25
13	Brentford	18	7	3	8	+2	24
14	Wolves	17	7	2	8	-1	23
15	Aston Villa	16	6	3	7	+1	21
16	Burnley	18	5	6	7	-6	21
17	Brighton	18	4	7	7	-6	19
18	Leeds	17	4	5	8	-16	17
19	Norwich	17	3	3	11	-22	12
20	Watford	17	2	1	14	-25	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	13	3	1	+26	42
2	Liverpool	17	11	4	2	+26	37
3	Chelsea	18	11	4	3	+25	37
4	Tottenham	18	8	4	6	+5	28
5	Brighton	18	7	7	4	+2	28
6	Arsenal	17	9	1	7	+0	28
7	Wolves	18	8	3	7	+2	27
8	Man United	18	6	5	7	-9	23
9	Aston Villa	18	7	1	10	-1	22
10	West Ham	17	6	3	8	+0	21
11	Brentford	18	5	4	9	-10	19
12	Crystal Palace	17	4	6	7	-5	18
13	Leeds	17	4	5	8	-18	17
14	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-13	16
15	Watford	18	4	3	11	-13	15
16	Southampton	18	3	6	9	-20	15
17	Leicester	17	3	5	9	-12	14
18	Burnley	17	2	7	8	-11	13
19	Norwich	17	2	3	12	-27	9
20	Everton	16	1	3	12	-22	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.