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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Sp Braga

S S U S S

1–0

Full-time

Arouca

S T U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Arouca

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

83%

33%

Points per game

2,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,8

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,2

Conceded

0,5

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 32/32 matches

Win Ø 39%

56%

22%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 49%

44%

53%

Both score Ø 50%

44%

56%

Average goals

2,4

2,6

Scored

1,5

0,9

Conceded

0,9

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

64% Possession 36%

12 Shots 14

2 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 8

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 8

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Arouca 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	33	28	4	1	+62	88
2	Sp Lisbon	33	26	4	3	+46	82
3	Benfica	33	22	5	6	+46	71
4	Sp Braga	32	18	8	6	+21	62
5	Gil Vicente	33	13	12	8	+10	51
6	Guimaraes	33	12	9	12	+4	45
7	Estoril	33	9	12	12	-5	39
8	Maritimo	33	9	11	13	-4	38
9	Pacos Ferreira	32	9	11	12	-11	38
10	Boavista	33	7	16	10	-13	37
11	Santa Clara	32	8	13	11	-14	37
12	Portimonense	33	9	8	16	-15	35
13	Famalicao	32	7	12	13	-8	33
14	Vizela	33	7	12	14	-18	33
15	Arouca	32	7	9	16	-23	30
16	Tondela	33	7	6	20	-26	27
17	Moreirense	33	6	8	19	-21	26
18	Belenenses	32	5	10	17	-31	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	16	14	2	0	+37	44
2	Sp Lisbon	16	13	1	2	+22	40
3	Benfica	17	10	3	4	+20	33
4	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+13	31
5	Guimaraes	16	8	3	5	+9	27
6	Santa Clara	16	7	6	3	-1	27
7	Gil Vicente	17	6	6	5	+6	24
8	Boavista	17	4	10	3	+0	22
9	Pacos Ferreira	16	5	6	5	-1	21
10	Estoril	17	4	8	5	+0	20
11	Famalicao	16	4	7	5	+0	19
12	Vizela	17	4	7	6	-5	19
13	Maritimo	16	4	6	6	+3	18
14	Arouca	16	5	3	8	-14	18
15	Belenenses	16	5	3	8	-14	18
16	Portimonense	17	4	4	9	-7	16
17	Moreirense	16	4	3	9	-4	15
18	Tondela	16	4	3	9	-9	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	17	14	2	1	+25	44
2	Sp Lisbon	17	13	3	1	+24	42
3	Benfica	16	12	2	2	+26	38
4	Sp Braga	16	9	4	3	+8	31
5	Gil Vicente	16	7	6	3	+4	27
6	Maritimo	17	5	5	7	-7	20
7	Estoril	16	5	4	7	-5	19
8	Portimonense	16	5	4	7	-8	19
9	Guimaraes	17	4	6	7	-5	18
10	Pacos Ferreira	16	4	5	7	-10	17
11	Boavista	16	3	6	7	-13	15
12	Famalicao	16	3	5	8	-8	14
13	Vizela	16	3	5	8	-13	14
14	Arouca	16	2	6	8	-9	12
15	Tondela	17	3	3	11	-17	12
16	Moreirense	17	2	5	10	-17	11
17	Santa Clara	16	1	7	8	-13	10
18	Belenenses	16	0	7	9	-17	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.