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Ligue 1

Referee: F Letexier

Lyon

U S U S T

5–2

Full-time

Montpellier

S T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lyon Montpellier

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,3

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

83%

17%

Average goals

3,8

1,5

Scored

2,2

0,5

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

This season — Ligue 1 · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 38%

39%

36%

Points per game

1,5

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 45%

48%

42%

Both score Ø 56%

67%

45%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,2

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–2

52% Possession 48%

27 Shots 11

13 Shots on target 7

10 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 7

8 Corners 2

1 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lyon 8. · Montpellier 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	33	24	5	4	+45	77
2	Marseille	33	18	8	7	+22	62
3	Rennes	33	17	5	11	+34	56
4	Strasbourg	33	15	11	7	+20	56
5	Monaco	33	16	8	9	+17	56
6	Nice	33	16	7	10	+13	55
7	Lens	33	15	8	10	+11	53
8	Lyon	33	13	11	9	+8	50
9	Lille	33	12	12	9	+1	48
10	Nantes	33	13	8	12	+5	47
11	Montpellier	33	12	6	15	-2	42
12	Brest	33	11	9	13	-6	42
13	Reims	33	9	13	11	+0	40
14	Angers	33	8	10	15	-13	34
15	Lorient	33	8	10	15	-19	34
16	Troyes	33	8	9	16	-16	33
17	Clermont	33	8	8	17	-28	32
18	St Etienne	33	7	10	16	-27	31
19	Bordeaux	33	5	12	16	-35	27
20	Metz	33	4	12	17	-30	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paris SG	16	15	1	0	+32	46
2	Rennes	16	11	1	4	+28	34
3	Monaco	17	10	4	3	+18	34
4	Strasbourg	17	10	4	3	+17	34
5	Lens	17	9	5	3	+15	32
6	Lyon	17	9	5	3	+13	32
7	Nantes	16	9	3	4	+10	30
8	Marseille	17	8	5	4	+10	29
9	Nice	16	8	4	4	+5	28
10	Montpellier	17	7	4	6	+5	25
11	Lille	16	6	7	3	+2	25
12	Lorient	16	6	5	5	+2	23
13	Brest	16	6	4	6	+0	22
14	Reims	16	5	6	5	+5	21
15	Angers	17	6	2	9	-5	20
16	Troyes	17	4	7	6	-1	19
17	St Etienne	17	4	6	7	-10	18
18	Bordeaux	17	3	6	8	-7	15
19	Clermont	16	3	5	8	-11	14
20	Metz	16	1	7	8	-11	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Marseille	16	10	3	3	+12	33
2	Paris SG	17	9	4	4	+13	31
3	Nice	17	8	3	6	+8	27
4	Lille	17	6	5	6	-1	23
5	Rennes	17	6	4	7	+6	22
6	Strasbourg	16	5	7	4	+3	22
7	Monaco	16	6	4	6	-1	22
8	Lens	16	6	3	7	-4	21
9	Brest	17	5	5	7	-6	20
10	Reims	17	4	7	6	-5	19
11	Lyon	16	4	6	6	-5	18
12	Clermont	17	5	3	9	-17	18
13	Nantes	17	4	5	8	-5	17
14	Montpellier	16	5	2	9	-7	17
15	Angers	16	2	8	6	-8	14
16	Troyes	16	4	2	10	-15	14
17	Metz	17	3	5	9	-19	14
18	St Etienne	16	3	4	9	-17	13
19	Bordeaux	16	2	6	8	-28	12
20	Lorient	17	2	5	10	-21	11

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.