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Serie A

Referee: A Colombo

Milan

S T T S S

0–2

Full-time

Napoli

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Napoli

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

67%

83%

Points per game

2,0

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

0,8

0,2

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 8/9 matches

Win Ø 64%

50%

78%

Points per game

1,8

2,4

Over 2.5 Ø 72%

88%

56%

Both score Ø 43%

63%

22%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

2,0

1,8

Conceded

1,1

0,6

Goal diff per game

+0,9

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

0,69 xG 1,13

61% Possession 39%

13 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 1

3 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 6

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 8. · Napoli 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	9	7	1	1	+11	+7.5	22
2	Inter	9	5	3	1	+8	+5.5	18
3	Juventus	9	4	5	0	+10	+6.2	17
4	Fiorentina	9	4	4	1	+11	+7.2	16
5	Atalanta	9	5	1	3	+10	+9.1	16
6	Lazio	9	5	1	3	+5	+5.2	16
7	Udinese	9	5	1	3	+1	-4.0	16
8	Milan	8	4	2	2	+7	+6.7	14
9	Torino	9	4	2	3	+1	-3.6	14
10	Bologna	9	2	6	1	+0	-0.7	12
11	Empoli	9	2	5	2	+1	-5.6	11
12	Roma	9	2	4	3	-2	-1.9	10
13	Como	9	2	3	4	-5	-0.0	9
14	Verona	10	3	0	7	-9	-5.6	9
15	Cagliari	10	2	3	5	-9	-1.5	9
16	Monza	9	1	5	3	-1	-3.5	8
17	Parma	9	1	5	3	-2	-0.0	8
18	Lecce	10	2	2	6	-15	-6.2	8
19	Genoa	9	1	3	5	-13	-9.0	6
20	Venezia	9	1	2	6	-9	-5.8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	5	5	0	0	+9	+6.7	15
2	Lazio	5	4	1	0	+7	+6.4	13
3	Udinese	5	4	0	1	+4	-1.6	12
4	Fiorentina	5	3	2	0	+6	+5.6	11
5	Milan	4	3	1	0	+8	+5.0	10
6	Inter	5	3	1	1	+6	+2.8	10
7	Atalanta	4	3	0	1	+9	+5.6	9
8	Juventus	5	2	3	0	+4	+3.7	9
9	Torino	4	2	1	1	+1	-3.4	7
10	Lecce	5	2	1	2	-8	-1.6	7
11	Roma	4	2	0	2	+2	+0.5	6
12	Verona	5	2	0	3	-3	-0.6	6
13	Como	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.9	5
14	Parma	5	1	2	2	-1	+0.6	5
15	Cagliari	6	1	2	3	-7	+0.2	5
16	Bologna	4	0	4	0	+0	+0.8	4
17	Venezia	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
18	Empoli	4	0	3	1	-1	-1.3	3
19	Monza	5	0	3	2	-2	-1.2	3
20	Genoa	5	0	3	2	-5	-3.2	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	4	2	2	0	+6	+2.4	8
2	Empoli	5	2	2	1	+2	-4.3	8
3	Inter	4	2	2	0	+2	+2.7	8
4	Bologna	5	2	2	1	+0	-1.5	8
5	Napoli	4	2	1	1	+2	+0.7	7
6	Atalanta	5	2	1	2	+1	+3.5	7
7	Torino	5	2	1	2	+0	-0.2	7
8	Fiorentina	4	1	2	1	+5	+1.6	5
9	Monza	4	1	2	1	+1	-2.3	5
10	Milan	4	1	1	2	-1	+1.6	4
11	Cagliari	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.8	4
12	Udinese	4	1	1	2	-3	-2.3	4
13	Roma	5	0	4	1	-4	-2.3	4
14	Como	6	1	1	4	-6	-1.9	4
15	Parma	4	0	3	1	-1	-0.6	3
16	Lazio	4	1	0	3	-2	-1.2	3
17	Verona	5	1	0	4	-6	-5.0	3
18	Genoa	4	1	0	3	-8	-5.7	3
19	Venezia	6	0	2	4	-8	-6.2	2
20	Lecce	5	0	1	4	-7	-4.6	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.