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Champions League
Referee: S Schärer
Leverkusen
T S S S U
1–0
Full-time
Milan
U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Leverkusen Milan
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,2
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 84%
67%
100%
Both score Ø 67%
67%
67%
Average goals
4,0
3,5
Scored
2,7
2,2
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,8
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — Champions League · 1/1 matches
Win Ø 50%
100%
0%
Points per game
3,0
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 100%
100%
100%
Both score Ø 50%
0%
100%
Average goals
4,0
4,0
Scored
4,0
1,0
Conceded
0,0
3,0
Goal diff per game
+4,0
-2,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,78 xG 0,81
50% Possession 50%
16 Shots 16
9 Shots on target 5
1 Blocked shots 5
5 Goalkeeper saves 8
5 Corners 4
3 Offside 0
15 Free kicks against 4
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0

Match report

Leverkusen Milan
Aleix García 🟨
8′
Half-time 1–0
1–0 V. Boniface ⚽
51′
62′
🔁 Álvaro Morata
↦ T. Abraham
Jeremie Frimpong 🟨
74′
M. Terrier 🔁
↦ V. Boniface
75′
R. Andrich 🔁
↦ Aleix García
75′
79′
🔁 S. Chukwueze
↦ C. Pulišić
E. Palacios 🔁
↦ A. Adli
82′
84′
🟨 Álvaro Morata
J. Belocian 🔁
↦ Álex Grimaldo
89′
N. Tella 🔁
↦ F. Wirtz
89′
93′
🟨 Samuel Chukwueze
95′
🟨 Fikayo Tomori
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Leverkusen

3-4-2-1
1 L. Hrádecký G
12 E. Tapsoba D
4 J. Tah D
3 P. Hincapié D
30 J. Frimpong M
34 G. Xhaka M
24 Aleix García M
20 Álex Grimaldo M
21 A. Adli F
10 F. Wirtz F
22 V. Boniface F
Bench (11)
11 M. Terrier
8 R. Andrich
25 E. Palacios
44 J. Belocian
19 N. Tella
23 N. Mukiele
14 P. Schick
17 M. Kovář
13 Arthur
36 N. Lomb
7 J. Hofmann

Coach: Xabi Alonso

Milan

4-2-3-1
16 M. Maignan G
22 Emerson Royal D
46 M. Gabbia D
23 F. Tomori D
19 T. Hernández D
29 Y. Fofana M
8 R. Loftus-Cheek M
11 C. Pulišić M
14 T. Reijnders M
10 Rafael Leão M
90 T. Abraham F
Bench (10)
7 Álvaro Morata
21 S. Chukwueze
80 Y. Musah
28 M. Thiaw
2 D. Calabria
17 N. Okafor
96 L. Torriani
42 F. Terracciano
69 L. Nava
31 S. Pavlović

Coach: Paulo Fonseca

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5
–
🔒
U1,5 ✓
–
🔒
O2,5
–
🔒
U2,5 ✓
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja
–
🔒
BLS nei ✓
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

S Schärer · 132 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,5 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
24,6 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,24 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.