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Serie A

Referee: P Tremolada

Napoli

U U U T S

2–1

Full-time

Parma

U U T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Napoli Parma

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

17%

83%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

0,8

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

2,5

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,5

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

2,19 xG 1,76

54% Possession 46%

29 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 2

12 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

6 Corners 4

4 Offside 0

12 Free kicks against 6

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Napoli 9. · Parma 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	2	1	0	+6	+1.9	7
2	Torino	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.7	7
3	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+6	+1.7	6
4	Empoli	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.4	5
5	Parma	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
6	Udinese	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.7	4
7	Genoa	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.4	4
8	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
9	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.9	3
10	Verona	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
11	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.0	3
12	Lecce	3	1	0	2	-5	-2.5	3
13	Fiorentina	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
14	Cagliari	3	0	2	1	-1	-0.5	2
15	Bologna	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.8	2
16	Milan	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.4	1
17	Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
18	Monza	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.4	1
19	Como	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.3	1
20	Venezia	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.2	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.1	6
2	Parma	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
3	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.0	3
4	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
5	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
6	Udinese	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
7	Torino	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
8	Verona	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
9	Lecce	2	1	0	1	-3	-0.3	3
10	Bologna	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.7	2
11	Cagliari	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.7	2
12	Milan	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
13	Genoa	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
14	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
15	Empoli	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
16	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
17	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
18	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.9	4
2	Empoli	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	4
3	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.7	3
4	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
5	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.0	3
6	Inter	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
7	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
8	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.3	1
9	Roma	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
10	Monza	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
11	Venezia	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
12	Como	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.3	1
13	Milan	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
14	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
15	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
16	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.1	0
17	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
18	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.