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Serie A

Referee: J Sacchi

Parma

U U U T U

2–1

Full-time

Milan

U S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Parma Milan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

2,2

4,3

Scored

1,3

2,3

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

2,0

4,0

Scored

1,0

2,0

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,73 xG 1,95

39% Possession 61%

8 Shots 17

5 Shots on target 5

1 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

3 Corners 9

2 Offside 0

9 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Parma 9. · Milan 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.2	3
2	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.0	3
3	Verona	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
4	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
5	Milan	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
6	Torino	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
7	Genoa	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
8	Inter	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
9	Parma	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
10	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
11	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.3	1
12	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.3	1
13	Cagliari	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
14	Roma	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
15	Empoli	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
16	Monza	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
17	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
18	Como	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.0	0
19	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0
20	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.0	3
2	Verona	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
3	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
4	Milan	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
5	Genoa	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
6	Parma	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
7	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.3	1
8	Cagliari	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
9	Empoli	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
10	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+4	+0.2	3
2	Torino	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
3	Inter	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
4	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
5	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.3	1
6	Roma	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
7	Monza	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
8	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.8	0
9	Como	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.0	0
10	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.