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Championship

Referee: D Webb

Cardiff

T S T U T

0–2

Full-time

Middlesbrough

S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Cardiff Middlesbrough

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

4,3

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

3,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

0,3

1,0

Conceded

2,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-2,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,55 xG 0,81

52% Possession 48%

12 Shots 10

3 Shots on target 5

4 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 6

7 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Cardiff 24. · Middlesbrough 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	3	3	0	0	+7	+2.7	9
2	Watford	3	3	0	0	+5	+0.9	9
3	Blackburn	3	2	1	0	+3	-0.3	7
4	West Brom	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.4	7
5	Burnley	3	2	0	1	+7	-0.4	6
6	Sheffield United	3	1	2	0	+2	+1.2	5
7	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.3	5
8	Bristol City	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.1	5
9	QPR	4	1	2	1	-1	-0.2	5
10	Swansea	3	1	1	1	+2	-0.0	4
11	Coventry	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.8	4
12	Middlesbrough	3	1	1	1	+0	+4.7	4
13	Portsmouth	3	0	3	0	+0	-4.3	3
14	Oxford	3	1	0	2	+0	-1.8	3
15	Hull	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.6	3
16	Derby	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.9	3
17	Sheffield Weds	3	1	0	2	-2	+2.3	3
18	Stoke	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.0	3
19	Preston	3	1	0	2	-4	-3.4	3
20	Norwich	3	0	2	1	-2	+1.2	2
21	Plymouth	3	0	2	1	-4	-6.6	2
22	Millwall	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.3	1
23	Luton	4	0	1	3	-5	+1.9	1
24	Cardiff	3	0	1	2	-7	-1.7	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	+5	+1.9	6
2	Watford	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.8	6
3	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.9	6
4	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+3	+2.4	4
5	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
6	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+1	+4.2	4
7	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+5	+0.2	3
8	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	+2	+3.6	3
9	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.1	3
10	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
11	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
12	Stoke	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.5	3
13	Preston	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.8	3
14	Norwich	2	0	2	0	+0	+1.3	2
15	Hull	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
16	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.5	1
17	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
18	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
19	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
20	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
21	QPR	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.4	1
22	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
23	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
24	Luton	2	0	0	2	-4	+0.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	West Brom	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.4	6
2	Sheffield United	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.2	4
3	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.8	4
4	QPR	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.6	4
5	Burnley	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.6	3
6	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
7	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
8	Portsmouth	2	0	2	0	+0	-4.3	2
9	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
10	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
11	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
12	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
13	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
14	Luton	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.4	1
15	Plymouth	2	0	1	1	-4	-6.5	1
16	Cardiff	2	0	1	1	-5	-0.9	1
17	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.4	0
18	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
19	Oxford	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.9	0
20	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.1	0
21	Derby	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.4	0
22	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.4	0
23	Preston	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0
24	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.