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Ligue 1

Referee: B Millot

Montpellier

S T U U T

1–3

Full-time

Nantes

U T T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Montpellier Nantes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

1,8

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

2,2

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ligue 1 · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

4,0

1,0

Scored

0,5

1,0

Conceded

3,5

0,0

Goal diff per game

-3,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

0,92 xG 1,48

69% Possession 31%

11 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Montpellier 16. · Nantes 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	2	2	0	0	+9	+5.8	6
2	Lille	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.3	6
3	Monaco	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.7	6
4	Lens	2	2	0	0	+3	+3.0	6
5	Marseille	2	1	1	0	+4	+3.3	4
6	Nantes	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.9	4
7	Strasbourg	3	1	1	1	+1	-1.1	4
8	Rennes	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.4	3
9	Le Havre	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.4	3
10	Auxerre	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.9	3
11	Brest	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.2	3
12	Lyon	3	1	0	2	-4	-2.0	3
13	Toulouse	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.9	2
14	Nice	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.9	1
15	Reims	2	0	1	1	-2	-4.3	1
16	Montpellier	2	0	1	1	-6	-2.7	1
17	Angers	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.1	0
18	St Etienne	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+6	+3.2	3
2	Rennes	1	1	0	0	+3	-0.0	3
3	Strasbourg	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.4	3
4	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
5	Nantes	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
6	Lens	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.1	3
7	Auxerre	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
8	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
9	Brest	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.9	3
10	Lyon	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.0	3
11	Marseille	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.3	1
12	Montpellier	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
13	Nice	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
14	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
15	Angers	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
16	Reims	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.0	0
17	St Etienne	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.3	0
18	Le Havre	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Marseille	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.1	3
2	Paris SG	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.7	3
3	Monaco	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
4	Lille	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.0	3
5	Le Havre	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.3	3
6	Lens	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
7	Reims	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.3	1
8	Toulouse	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
9	Nantes	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
10	Strasbourg	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
11	Nice	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
12	Rennes	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.4	0
13	Angers	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
14	Auxerre	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
15	Brest	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.1	0
16	Lyon	1	0	0	1	-3	+0.0	0
17	St Etienne	2	0	0	2	-5	-4.5	0
18	Montpellier	1	0	0	1	-6	-3.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.