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Serie A

Referee: M Fabbri

Lecce

T U S T T

1–0

Full-time

Cagliari

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Cagliari

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

2,2

3,2

Scored

0,3

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

3,0

1,0

Scored

0,0

0,5

Conceded

3,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

-3,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,70 xG 1,88

35% Possession 65%

17 Shots 21

4 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 12

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 10

2 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 20. · Cagliari 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	2	1	0	+6	+1.9	7
2	Torino	3	2	1	0	+2	-1.7	7
3	Juventus	2	2	0	0	+6	+1.7	6
4	Parma	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
5	Udinese	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.7	4
6	Genoa	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.4	4
7	Empoli	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
8	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.2	3
9	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.9	3
10	Verona	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
11	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.0	3
12	Fiorentina	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.8	2
13	Cagliari	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.7	2
14	Milan	2	0	1	1	-1	+1.4	1
15	Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.7	1
16	Monza	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.4	1
17	Como	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.3	1
18	Venezia	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.2	1
19	Bologna	2	0	1	1	-3	+0.4	1
20	Lecce	2	0	0	2	-6	-2.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.1	6
2	Parma	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
3	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.0	3
4	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.8	3
5	Lazio	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.8	3
6	Udinese	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
7	Torino	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
8	Verona	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
9	Cagliari	2	0	2	0	+0	-0.7	2
10	Milan	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
11	Genoa	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
12	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.3	1
13	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
14	Empoli	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
15	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
16	Venezia	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
17	Monza	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.2	0
18	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-4	-0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.9	4
2	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.7	3
3	Empoli	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
4	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
5	Atalanta	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.0	3
6	Inter	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
7	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
8	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.3	1
9	Roma	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
10	Monza	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
11	Venezia	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
12	Como	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.3	1
13	Milan	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
14	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
15	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.1	0
16	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.8	0
17	Napoli	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.