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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Carvalho

Estrela

T S U T T

0–1

Full-time

Casa Pia

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Estrela Casa Pia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,8

2,8

Scored

0,3

0,8

Conceded

1,5

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,3

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 17%

33%

Average goals

2,0

Scored

0,3

0,0

Conceded

1,7

2,0

Goal diff per game

-1,3

-2,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,46 xG 0,60

66% Possession 34%

14 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

2 Corners 7

1 Offside 2

9 Free kicks against 22

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Estrela 14. · Casa Pia 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+12	+8.1	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+7	+7.1	9
3	Famalicao	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.3	9
4	Santa Clara	4	3	0	1	+4	+3.3	9
5	Sp Braga	3	2	1	0	+3	+0.7	7
6	Benfica	4	2	1	1	+2	+4.1	7
7	Moreirense	4	2	1	1	+1	+1.5	7
8	Guimaraes	3	2	0	1	+1	+3.1	6
9	Gil Vicente	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.6	4
10	AVS	4	1	1	2	-2	-2.5	4
11	Boavista	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.6	3
12	Arouca	3	1	0	2	-2	-2.1	3
13	Rio Ave	3	1	0	2	-3	-5.1	3
14	Estrela	3	0	1	2	-4	-3.2	1
15	Estoril	3	0	1	2	-4	-4.9	1
16	Nacional	3	0	1	2	-6	-2.4	1
17	Casa Pia	3	0	0	3	-6	-2.3	0
18	Farense	3	0	0	3	-7	-5.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+5	+6.7	6
2	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+4	+3.5	6
3	Famalicao	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.1	6
4	Sp Braga	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.3	4
5	Moreirense	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.3	4
6	AVS	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.4	4
7	Gil Vicente	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
8	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.5	3
9	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.8	3
10	Guimaraes	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.6	3
11	Arouca	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.6	3
12	Santa Clara	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.8	3
13	Estoril	2	0	1	1	-3	-3.4	1
14	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
15	Casa Pia	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.1	0
16	Estrela	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.2	0
17	Nacional	1	0	0	1	-5	-1.9	0
18	Farense	2	0	0	2	-6	-4.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+10	+5.6	6
2	Santa Clara	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.5	6
3	Famalicao	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.2	3
4	Porto	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
5	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
6	Boavista	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.2	3
7	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.5	3
8	Moreirense	2	1	0	1	-1	+1.3	3
9	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.0	1
10	Nacional	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
11	Benfica	2	0	1	1	-2	+0.5	1
12	Gil Vicente	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.6	1
13	Farense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.8	0
14	Estoril	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.6	0
15	Arouca	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.5	0
16	AVS	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.1	0
17	Casa Pia	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.2	0
18	Rio Ave	2	0	0	2	-4	-5.9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.