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Serie A

Referee: D Di Marco

Milan

T U U S T

3–3

Full-time

Salernitana

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Milan Salernitana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,2

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,7

3,0

Scored

1,8

0,7

Conceded

1,8

2,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-1,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 37/37 matches

Win Ø 32%

59%

Points per game

2,0

0,4

Over 2.5 Ø 65%

65%

Both score Ø 58%

59%

57%

Average goals

3,2

2,9

Scored

2,0

0,8

Conceded

1,2

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,99 xG 1,66

66% Possession 34%

23 Shots 14

11 Shots on target 6

5 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 8

13 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

6 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Milan 2. · Salernitana 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	37	29	6	2	+67	+47.0	93
2	Milan	37	22	8	7	+27	+19.3	74
3	Juventus	38	19	14	5	+23	+25.5	71
4	Bologna	38	18	14	6	+22	+11.2	68
5	Atalanta	36	20	6	10	+28	+14.8	66
6	Roma	37	18	9	10	+20	+11.0	63
7	Lazio	37	18	6	13	+10	+4.2	60
8	Fiorentina	37	16	9	12	+14	+4.7	57
9	Torino	37	13	14	10	+3	+2.3	53
10	Napoli	37	13	13	11	+7	+21.9	52
11	Genoa	38	12	13	13	+0	-7.0	49
12	Monza	38	11	12	15	-12	-16.7	45
13	Verona	37	9	10	18	-13	-10.2	37
14	Lecce	37	8	13	16	-22	-9.7	37
15	Cagliari	38	8	12	18	-26	-11.7	36
16	Frosinone	37	8	11	18	-24	-13.5	35
17	Udinese	37	5	19	13	-17	-9.0	34
18	Empoli	37	8	9	20	-26	-18.9	33
19	Sassuolo	37	7	8	22	-32	-21.7	29
20	Salernitana	37	2	10	25	-49	-43.4	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	19	14	4	1	+33	+28.5	46
2	Bologna	19	12	5	2	+21	+9.9	41
3	Roma	19	12	4	3	+19	+12.5	40
4	Juventus	19	11	7	1	+15	+19.6	40
5	Milan	18	12	3	3	+21	+12.0	39
6	Atalanta	17	12	2	3	+24	+15.2	38
7	Fiorentina	19	10	5	4	+15	+10.4	35
8	Lazio	18	10	3	5	+9	+9.0	33
9	Torino	19	8	9	2	+9	+7.3	33
10	Genoa	19	8	6	5	+5	-1.5	30
11	Frosinone	18	7	4	7	-3	-3.7	25
12	Cagliari	19	6	7	6	-4	+4.8	25
13	Napoli	18	6	6	6	-3	+12.4	24
14	Monza	19	6	6	7	-3	-6.3	24
15	Lecce	19	6	6	7	-10	-1.0	24
16	Verona	18	6	5	7	-3	-4.3	23
17	Sassuolo	19	5	5	9	-11	-10.8	20
18	Empoli	18	4	5	9	-9	-6.5	17
19	Udinese	19	1	11	7	-8	-1.2	14
20	Salernitana	19	1	5	13	-21	-17.4	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	18	15	2	1	+34	+18.5	47
2	Milan	19	10	5	4	+6	+7.3	35
3	Juventus	19	8	7	4	+8	+5.9	31
4	Napoli	19	7	7	5	+10	+9.6	28
5	Atalanta	19	8	4	7	+4	-0.4	28
6	Lazio	19	8	3	8	+1	-4.8	27
7	Bologna	19	6	9	4	+1	+1.4	27
8	Roma	18	6	5	7	+1	-1.6	23
9	Fiorentina	18	6	4	8	-1	-5.7	22
10	Monza	19	5	6	8	-9	-10.4	21
11	Torino	18	5	5	8	-6	-5.0	20
12	Udinese	18	4	8	6	-9	-7.8	20
13	Genoa	19	4	7	8	-5	-5.5	19
14	Empoli	19	4	4	11	-17	-12.4	16
15	Verona	19	3	5	11	-10	-5.9	14
16	Lecce	18	2	7	9	-12	-8.8	13
17	Cagliari	19	2	5	12	-22	-16.6	11
18	Frosinone	19	1	7	11	-21	-9.8	10
19	Sassuolo	18	2	3	13	-21	-10.8	9
20	Salernitana	18	1	5	12	-28	-26.1	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.