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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Watford

S T S S S

2–1

Full-time

Derby

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,2

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

3,0

3,3

Scored

2,2

1,3

Conceded

0,8

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

4,0

3,5

Scored

3,0

1,5

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,13 xG 0,74

65% Possession 35%

12 Shots 8

3 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

4 Corners 2

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 11

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 3. · Derby 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Burnley	2	2	0	0	+8	+0.2	6
2	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	+6	+2.1	6
3	Watford	2	2	0	0	+4	+0.5	6
4	Leeds	3	1	2	0	+2	+3.3	5
5	Bristol City	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.1	5
6	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.2	4
7	Sheffield United	2	1	1	0	+2	+1.4	4
8	West Brom	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.6	4
9	Coventry	3	1	1	1	+0	+1.8	4
10	Swansea	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.7	3
11	Oxford	2	1	0	1	+1	-1.9	3
12	Hull	3	0	3	0	+0	+0.6	3
13	Middlesbrough	2	1	0	1	+0	+2.9	3
14	Derby	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.5	3
15	Sheffield Weds	3	1	0	2	-2	+2.3	3
16	Stoke	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.2	3
17	Portsmouth	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.5	2
18	QPR	3	0	2	1	-2	+0.4	2
19	Plymouth	3	0	2	1	-4	-6.6	2
20	Millwall	3	0	1	2	-2	+0.3	1
21	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.1	1
22	Luton	2	0	1	1	-3	-0.0	1
23	Preston	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.0	0
24	Cardiff	2	0	0	2	-7	-1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bristol City	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
2	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+5	+0.2	3
3	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.3	3
4	Watford	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.4	3
5	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.7	3
6	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
7	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	+2	+3.6	3
8	Oxford	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.1	3
9	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
10	Middlesbrough	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.4	3
11	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.2	3
12	Derby	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.5	3
13	Hull	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.4	2
14	Leeds	1	0	1	0	+0	+2.5	1
15	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.2	1
16	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.0	1
17	Plymouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
18	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
19	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.0	1
20	QPR	2	0	1	1	-2	+1.4	1
21	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
22	Preston	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0
23	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
24	Luton	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leeds	2	1	1	0	+2	+0.8	4
2	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.0	3
3	West Brom	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
4	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.4	3
5	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
6	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
7	Portsmouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-2.5	1
8	Blackburn	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.2	1
9	QPR	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.0	1
10	Bristol City	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
11	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
12	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.0	1
13	Millwall	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.5	1
14	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.2	1
15	Plymouth	2	0	1	1	-4	-6.5	1
16	Oxford	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
17	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.4	0
18	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.5	0
19	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
20	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.1	0
21	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.4	0
22	Preston	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.7	0
23	Sheffield Weds	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.3	0
24	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-5	-0.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.