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La Liga

Referee: Gil Manzano

Barcelona

S S S S S

2–1

Full-time

Ath Bilbao

U T S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Ath Bilbao

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

2,2

1,5

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 50%

100%

Points per game

3,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,0

1,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

1,83 xG 1,03

65% Possession 35%

13 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

5 Corners 6

2 Offside 5

11 Free kicks against 16

4 Yellow cards 5

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 4. · Ath Bilbao 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Celta	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.4	6
2	Villarreal	2	1	1	0	+1	-0.5	4
3	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
4	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.2	3
5	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
6	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
7	Ath Madrid	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
8	Las Palmas	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
9	Ath Bilbao	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
10	Getafe	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Real Madrid	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
12	Leganes	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
13	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
14	Girona	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
15	Sevilla	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.6	1
16	Mallorca	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.5	1
17	Alaves	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
18	Sociedad	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0
19	Espanol	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
20	Valencia	2	0	0	2	-3	-2.6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Celta	2	2	0	0	+3	-0.4	6
2	Osasuna	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.7	4
3	Valladolid	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
4	Villarreal	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
5	Las Palmas	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
6	Ath Bilbao	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.5	1
7	Mallorca	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
8	Betis	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.2	1
9	Valencia	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.2	0
10	Sociedad	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.0	0
11	Sevilla	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.2	3
2	Vallecano	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.0	3
3	Villarreal	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
4	Ath Madrid	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
5	Sevilla	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.4	1
6	Getafe	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
7	Real Madrid	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.4	1
8	Leganes	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.8	1
9	Girona	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
10	Alaves	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
11	Mallorca	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.0	0
12	Espanol	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.1	0
13	Valencia	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.