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Bundesliga
Referee: T Stieler
Hoffenheim
T U S S U
3–2
Full-time
Holstein Kiel
T S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hoffenheim Holstein Kiel
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,8
2,2
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
83%
50%
Both score Ø 75%
83%
67%
Average goals
5,0
2,7
Scored
3,2
1,5
Conceded
1,8
1,2
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,3
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

3,38 xG 1,57
55% Possession 45%
20 Shots 15
8 Shots on target 6
5 Blocked shots 4
4 Goalkeeper saves 5
8 Corners 6
2 Offside 1
8 Free kicks against 14
2 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 1

Match report

Hoffenheim Holstein Kiel
5′
🟨 Timon Weiner
1–0 A. Kramarić ⚽
6′
Adam Hložek 🟨
14′
2–0 A. Kramarić ⚽
M. Bülter
37′
Half-time 2–0
46′
🔁 A. Kelati
↦ T. Puchacz
46′
🔁 F. Porath
↦ M. Komenda
54′
🔁 F. Arp
↦ B. Pichler
M. Berisha 🔁
↦ A. Hložek
59′
63′
⚽ A. Bernhardsson 2–1
F. Porath
J. Bruun Larsen 🔁
↦ M. Bülter
69′
D. Geiger 🔁
↦ F. Grillitsch
69′
79′
🔁 N. Remberg
↦ M. Knudsen
81′
🟨 Andu Yobel Kelati
82′
🟨 Andu Yobel Kelati
82′
🟥 Andu Yobel Kelati
82′
🔁 M. Schulz
↦ L. Holtby
3–1 A. Kramarić ⚽
87′
S. Nsoki 🔁
↦ A. Prass
89′
89′
⚽ S. Machino 3–2
N. Remberg
M. Moerstedt 🔁
↦ A. Kramarić
90′
Max Moerstedt 🟨
93′
Full-time 3–2

Line-ups

Hoffenheim

3-4-1-2
1 O. Baumann G
4 T. Drexler D
16 A. Stach D
25 K. Akpoguma D
3 P. Kadeřábek M
6 G. Prömel M
11 F. Grillitsch M
22 A. Prass M
27 A. Kramarić F
23 A. Hložek F
21 M. Bülter F
Bench (9)
10 M. Berisha
29 J. Bruun Larsen
8 D. Geiger
34 S. Nsoki
33 M. Moerstedt
28 F. Micheler
37 L. Philipp
31 L. Strobl
41 A. Szalai

Coach: P. Matarazzo

Holstein Kiel

3-4-1-2
1 T. Weiner G
6 M. Ivezić D
4 P. Erras D
3 M. Komenda D
17 T. Becker M
10 L. Holtby M
24 M. Knudsen M
27 T. Puchacz M
18 S. Machino F
11 A. Bernhardsson F
9 B. Pichler F
Bench (9)
16 A. Kelati
8 F. Porath
20 F. Arp
22 N. Remberg
15 M. Schulz
23 L. Rosenboom
21 T. Dähne
37 A. Gigović
14 M. Geschwill

Coach: M. Rapp

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,65
🔒
U
4,33
🔒
B
4,85
🔒
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
1,53
🔒
U2,5
2,49
🔒
O3,5 ✓
–
🔒
U3,5
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

Referee

T Stieler · 148 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,7 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
22,8 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,18 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.