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Premier League

Referee: M Oliver

Aston Villa

T T U T S

0–2

Full-time

Arsenal

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aston Villa Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

17%

100%

Points per game

0,7

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,8

3,2

Scored

1,2

2,7

Conceded

2,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+2,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Premier League · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

1,28 xG 0,87

39% Possession 61%

11 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 4

5 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 1

3 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aston Villa 8. · Arsenal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.8	6
2	Brighton	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.6	6
3	Tottenham	2	1	1	0	+4	+1.6	4
4	Nott'm Forest	2	1	1	0	+1	+2.4	4
5	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
6	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
7	West Ham	2	1	0	1	+1	+0.5	3
8	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
9	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
10	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.5	3
11	Man United	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.3	3
12	Fulham	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.8	3
13	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
14	Leicester	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.3	1
15	Southampton	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.8	0
16	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
17	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
18	Crystal Palace	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.5	0
19	Ipswich	2	0	0	2	-5	-5.2	0
20	Everton	2	0	0	2	-7	-2.4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Tottenham	1	1	0	0	+4	+1.4	3
2	Man City	1	1	0	0	+3	+3.0	3
3	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.8	3
4	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.7	3
5	Fulham	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.2	3
6	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
7	Newcastle	1	1	0	0	+1	-1.5	3
8	Man United	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.0	3
9	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
10	Nott'm Forest	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
11	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
12	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.3	0
13	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.0	0
14	Chelsea	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
15	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-2	-2.2	0
16	Everton	1	0	0	1	-3	-1.0	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	+1.0	3
2	West Ham	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.0	3
3	Man City	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
4	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+2	+2.2	3
5	Aston Villa	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.4	3
6	Nott'm Forest	1	1	0	0	+1	+2.3	3
7	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.1	1
8	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.1	1
9	Man United	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.7	0
10	Leicester	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.2	0
11	Crystal Palace	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.4	0
12	Southampton	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.5	0
13	Fulham	1	0	0	1	-1	-2.0	0
14	Wolves	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.8	0
15	Ipswich	1	0	0	1	-3	-3.0	0
16	Everton	1	0	0	1	-4	-1.4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.