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Serie A

Referee: M Marchetti

Inter

S S T S S

4–0

Full-time

Fiorentina

T S T U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,7

2,0

Conceded

0,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

100%

50%

Points per game

3,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

100%

Average goals

2,0

4,5

Scored

2,0

3,0

Conceded

0,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

+1,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

3,73 xG 0,38

40% Possession 60%

21 Shots 6

11 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

1 Corners 1

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 3. · Fiorentina 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	3	3	0	0	+6	+3.4	9
2	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.7	6
3	Inter	2	2	0	0	+4	+2.2	6
4	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+3	+4.6	6
5	Verona	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.1	6
6	Fiorentina	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.9	4
7	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.2	4
8	Lecce	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.2	4
9	Bologna	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.7	4
10	Frosinone	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.4	4
11	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
12	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-2	-3.2	3
13	Genoa	2	1	0	1	-2	-1.7	3
14	Monza	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.8	3
15	Salernitana	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
16	Udinese	3	0	2	1	-3	-0.7	2
17	Roma	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.6	1
18	Torino	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.0	1
19	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.7	1
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
2	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
3	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
4	Monza	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
5	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+4.0	3
6	Verona	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
7	Lecce	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
8	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
9	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.5	3
10	Bologna	2	1	0	1	-1	+2.0	3
11	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
12	Juventus	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
13	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
14	Torino	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
15	Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
16	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.0	1
17	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
18	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
19	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
20	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.8	6
2	Fiorentina	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.8	3
3	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
4	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
5	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
6	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
7	Genoa	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.9	3
8	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.5	3
9	Verona	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.3	3
10	Lecce	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
11	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.8	1
12	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
13	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
14	Frosinone	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
15	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.4	1
16	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
17	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-2	-3.4	0
18	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
19	Torino	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
20	Monza	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.