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Serie A

Referee: F Maresca

Inter

T S T U T

0–1

Full-time

Fiorentina

S S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Inter Fiorentina

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

33%

100%

Points per game

1,2

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,3

2,5

Scored

0,7

2,2

Conceded

0,7

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+1,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 48%

59%

37%

Points per game

1,9

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

59%

41%

Both score Ø 52%

52%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,6

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

2,75 xG 1,11

59% Possession 41%

16 Shots 19

3 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 7

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

10 Corners 8

4 Offside 0

8 Free kicks against 7

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Inter 4. · Fiorentina 9. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	27	23	2	2	+48	+9.1	71
2	Juventus	27	17	5	5	+23	+4.8	56
3	Lazio	27	15	7	5	+23	+2.4	52
4	Inter	27	16	2	9	+16	+9.6	50
5	Atalanta	28	14	6	8	+15	+4.4	48
6	Milan	27	14	6	7	+8	+0.1	48
7	Roma	27	14	5	8	+9	+1.1	47
8	Udinese	27	9	11	7	+6	-1.7	38
9	Fiorentina	27	10	7	10	+1	+4.4	37
10	Bologna	27	10	7	10	-3	-1.2	37
11	Torino	27	10	7	10	-4	+0.6	37
12	Sassuolo	27	10	6	11	-5	+2.9	36
13	Monza	27	9	7	11	-5	-1.1	34
14	Empoli	27	6	10	11	-12	-6.1	28
15	Lecce	27	6	9	12	-8	-1.4	27
16	Salernitana	27	6	9	12	-16	-5.5	27
17	Spezia	26	5	8	13	-20	-7.6	23
18	Verona	26	4	6	16	-19	-2.0	18
19	Sampdoria	27	3	6	18	-28	-5.4	15
20	Cremonese	28	1	10	17	-29	-7.5	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	13	11	1	1	+24	+3.5	34
2	Juventus	14	10	3	1	+21	+4.0	33
3	Inter	14	11	0	3	+20	+4.2	33
4	Milan	13	9	2	2	+11	+3.0	29
5	Lazio	14	8	3	3	+11	+0.9	27
6	Roma	13	8	1	4	+8	-2.3	25
7	Bologna	14	6	5	3	+7	+1.2	23
8	Fiorentina	14	6	4	4	+0	+4.1	22
9	Atalanta	13	6	3	4	+8	+5.4	21
10	Sassuolo	13	6	2	5	+2	+1.0	20
11	Udinese	13	4	7	2	+7	+2.5	19
12	Monza	14	5	4	5	+3	+0.2	19
13	Torino	13	5	4	4	-1	+2.2	19
14	Salernitana	14	4	4	6	-1	-3.6	16
15	Empoli	13	4	4	5	-3	-2.7	16
16	Spezia	13	3	6	4	-5	-5.2	15
17	Verona	14	4	2	8	-7	-0.5	14
18	Lecce	13	2	6	5	-4	-0.6	12
19	Sampdoria	14	1	4	9	-13	-0.3	7
20	Cremonese	14	1	3	10	-17	-3.8	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Napoli	14	12	1	1	+24	+5.5	37
2	Atalanta	15	8	3	4	+7	-0.9	27
3	Lazio	13	7	4	2	+12	+1.5	25
4	Juventus	13	7	2	4	+2	+0.8	23
5	Roma	14	6	4	4	+1	+3.4	22
6	Udinese	14	5	4	5	-1	-4.2	19
7	Milan	14	5	4	5	-3	-2.8	19
8	Torino	14	5	3	6	-3	-1.6	18
9	Inter	13	5	2	6	-4	+5.4	17
10	Sassuolo	14	4	4	6	-7	+1.9	16
11	Fiorentina	13	4	3	6	+1	+0.3	15
12	Lecce	14	4	3	7	-4	-0.8	15
13	Monza	13	4	3	6	-8	-1.3	15
14	Bologna	13	4	2	7	-10	-2.4	14
15	Empoli	14	2	6	6	-9	-3.4	12
16	Salernitana	13	2	5	6	-15	-2.0	11
17	Sampdoria	13	2	2	9	-15	-5.1	8
18	Spezia	13	2	2	9	-15	-2.4	8
19	Cremonese	14	0	7	7	-12	-3.7	7
20	Verona	12	0	4	8	-12	-1.5	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.