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La Liga
Referee: Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias
Osasuna
S T T S U
1–2
Full-time
Barcelona
S T U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Osasuna Barcelona
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 50%
50%
50%
Points per game
1,7
1,7
Over 2.5 Ø 67%
67%
67%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,8
3,2
Scored
1,5
1,8
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,5
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
This season — La Liga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 67%
67%
67%
Points per game
2,0
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 33%
33%
33%
Both score Ø 33%
33%
33%
Average goals
2,3
3,0
Scored
1,3
2,0
Conceded
1,0
1,0
Goal diff per game
+0,3
+1,0
xG created Pro
xG conceded Pro
xG diff Pro
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,77 xG 2,00
30% Possession 70%
11 Shots 9
3 Shots on target 4
6 Blocked shots 2
2 Goalkeeper saves 2
8 Corners 5
2 Offside 2
6 Free kicks against 16
1 Yellow cards 3
1 Red cards 0
The table before the match Osasuna 9. · Barcelona 4.
# Team K V U T +/− xG +/− P
1 Real Madrid 4 4 0 0 +6 +3.7 12
2 Girona 4 3 1 0 +5 +0.8 10
3 Ath Madrid 3 2 1 0 +9 +4.0 7
4 Barcelona 3 2 1 0 +3 +4.5 7
5 Ath Bilbao 4 2 1 1 +2 +2.4 7
6 Cadiz 4 2 1 1 +1 +1.2 7
7 Betis 4 2 1 1 +0 -2.3 7
8 Sociedad 4 1 3 0 +2 +1.1 6
9 Osasuna 3 2 0 1 +1 -0.8 6
10 Alaves 4 2 0 2 +0 -0.2 6
11 Valencia 4 2 0 2 +0 +1.3 6
12 Vallecano 4 2 0 2 -4 -0.9 6
13 Celta 4 1 1 2 -2 -1.1 4
14 Getafe 4 1 1 2 -3 -2.5 4
15 Villarreal 4 1 0 3 -3 -1.5 3
16 Granada 4 1 0 3 -5 -5.2 3
17 Mallorca 4 0 2 2 -2 +0.1 2
18 Las Palmas 4 0 2 2 -2 -1.8 2
19 Almeria 4 0 1 3 -5 -1.2 1
20 Sevilla 3 0 0 3 -3 -1.5 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Osasuna Barcelona
33′
🟨 Robert Lewandowski
Jesús Areso 🟨
41′
Half-time 0–1
46′
Jules Koundé 0–1
İlkay Gündoğan
59′
🔁 João Cancelo
↦ Sergi Roberto
59′
🔁 Ferran Torres
↦ Lamine Yamal
Kike Barja 🔁
↦ Rubén García
61′
Chimy Ávila 🔁
↦ José Manuel Arnáiz
62′
Ante Budimir 🔁
↦ Raúl García
62′
Jon Moncayola 🔁
↦ Pablo Ibáñez Lumbreras
72′
1–1 Chimy Ávila
Jesús Areso
76′
Nacho Vidal 🔁
↦ Jesús Areso
80′
80′
🔁 João Félix
↦ Oriol Romeu
83′
🟨 Frenkie de Jong
Alejandro Catena 🟥
84′
Alejandro Catena ℹ️
VAR: Card upgrade
84′
85′
Robert Lewandowski 1–2
90′
🔁 Iñigo Martínez
↦ Andreas Christensen
90′
🔁 Raphinha
↦ Robert Lewandowski
91′
🟨 Alejandro Baldé
Full-time 1–2

Line-ups

Osasuna

4-1-4-1
13 Aitor Fernández G
12 Jesús Areso D
24 Alejandro Catena D
28 Jorge Herrando D
3 Juan Cruz D
34 Iker Munoz M
14 Rubén García M
19 Pablo Ibáñez Lumbreras M
10 Aimar Oroz M
20 José Manuel Arnáiz M
23 Raúl García F
Bench (12)
11 Kike Barja
17 Ante Budimir
9 Chimy Ávila
7 Jon Moncayola
2 Nacho Vidal
1 Sergio Herrera
22 Johan Mojica
15 Rubén Peña
5 David García
4 Unai García
16 Moi Gómez
6 Lucas Torró

Coach: Arrasate

Barcelona

4-3-3
1 Marc-André ter Stegen G
20 Sergi Roberto D
23 Jules Koundé D
15 Andreas Christensen D
3 Alejandro Baldé D
21 Frenkie de Jong M
18 Oriol Romeu M
22 İlkay Gündoğan M
27 Lamine Yamal F
9 Robert Lewandowski F
6 Gavi F
Bench (11)
2 João Cancelo
7 Ferran Torres
14 João Félix
5 Iñigo Martínez
11 Raphinha
31 Diego Kochen
13 Iñaki Peña
17 Marcos Alonso
33 Pau Cubarsí
30 Marc Casadó
32 Fermín López

Coach: Xavi

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
5,12
U
4,10
B ✓
1,66
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,78
U2,5
2,06
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

Miguel Angel Ortiz Arias · 33 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,0 / match
Below average
⚽ Free kicks
24,7 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.