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Primeira Liga

Referee: Hélder Carvalho

Chaves

T T T T T

1–2

Full-time

Moreirense

S S T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Chaves Moreirense

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,3

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

2,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

-1,8

+0,7

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/2 matches

Win Ø 0%

Points per game

0,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

4,3

1,5

Scored

0,7

0,5

Conceded

3,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-3,0

-0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

0,79 xG 1,02

63% Possession 37%

13 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 2

3 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 2

14 Free kicks against 21

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Chaves 18. · Moreirense 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	4	3	0	1	+6	+5.8	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+3	+3.0	9
3	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+3	+3.1	9
4	Guimaraes	4	3	0	1	+0	-0.8	9
5	Boavista	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.4	7
6	Famalicao	4	2	1	1	+1	-1.9	7
7	Casa Pia	4	1	2	1	+2	+0.8	5
8	Arouca	3	1	2	0	+1	+0.8	5
9	Rio Ave	4	1	1	2	-1	+0.6	4
10	Vizela	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.0	4
11	Estrela	4	1	1	2	-2	-1.9	4
12	Gil Vicente	4	1	0	3	+2	-1.7	3
13	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.1	3
14	Farense	4	1	0	3	+0	-2.5	3
15	Estoril	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.9	3
16	Portimonense	4	0	2	2	-8	-3.8	2
17	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.2	1
18	Chaves	3	0	0	3	-9	-3.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+6	+4.1	6
2	Guimaraes	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.5	6
3	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+2	+3.0	6
4	Arouca	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.6	4
5	Boavista	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.5	4
6	Vizela	2	1	1	0	+1	+1.9	4
7	Famalicao	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.2	4
8	Gil Vicente	2	1	0	1	+4	-1.0	3
9	Farense	2	1	0	1	+2	-0.3	3
10	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.2	3
11	Rio Ave	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
12	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.5	3
13	Estrela	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.1	3
14	Casa Pia	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.1	1
15	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.5	1
16	Sp Braga	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.4	0
17	Moreirense	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
18	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Porto	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.5	6
2	Casa Pia	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.9	4
3	Boavista	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
4	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.5	3
5	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.1	3
6	Benfica	2	1	0	1	+0	+1.7	3
7	Famalicao	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.2	3
8	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-3	-1.2	3
9	Arouca	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.9	1
10	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.5	1
11	Estrela	2	0	1	1	-2	-2.0	1
12	Rio Ave	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.2	1
13	Portimonense	2	0	1	1	-5	-2.3	1
14	Estoril	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.3	0
15	Farense	2	0	0	2	-2	-2.2	0
16	Gil Vicente	2	0	0	2	-2	-0.7	0
17	Vizela	2	0	0	2	-3	-1.9	0
18	Chaves	2	0	0	2	-7	-4.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.