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Serie A

Referee: L Massimi

Lecce

S T S S U

2–0

Full-time

Salernitana

S T S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Salernitana

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

3,0

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

2,0

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

100%

50%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

3,5

3,0

Scored

2,0

1,5

Conceded

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,80 xG 1,05

45% Possession 55%

20 Shots 11

6 Shots on target 4

10 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 5

0 Offside 1

17 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Lecce 7. · Salernitana 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	3	3	0	0	+8	+5.5	9
2	Milan	3	3	0	0	+6	+3.4	9
3	Atalanta	3	2	0	1	+4	+2.7	6
4	Napoli	3	2	0	1	+3	+4.6	6
5	Verona	3	2	0	1	+0	-2.1	6
6	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	+1.2	4
7	Lecce	2	1	1	0	+1	-1.2	4
8	Fiorentina	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.5	4
9	Bologna	3	1	1	1	-1	+1.7	4
10	Frosinone	3	1	1	1	-1	-1.4	4
11	Torino	3	1	1	1	-2	-1.7	4
12	Lazio	3	1	0	2	-1	+0.4	3
13	Sassuolo	3	1	0	2	-2	-3.2	3
14	Genoa	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.9	3
15	Monza	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.8	3
16	Salernitana	2	0	2	0	+0	-2.1	2
17	Udinese	3	0	2	1	-3	-0.7	2
18	Roma	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.6	1
19	Cagliari	3	0	1	2	-3	-2.7	1
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Inter	2	2	0	0	+6	+5.3	6
2	Torino	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.8	4
3	Milan	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
4	Atalanta	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
5	Monza	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
6	Napoli	2	1	0	1	+1	+4.0	3
7	Verona	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
8	Lecce	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
9	Sassuolo	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.2	3
10	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.5	3
11	Bologna	2	1	0	1	-1	+2.0	3
12	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.1	1
13	Juventus	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
14	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
15	Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	+0.8	1
16	Udinese	2	0	1	1	-3	-1.0	1
17	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.9	0
18	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
19	Cagliari	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.3	0
20	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.8	6
2	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
3	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
4	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.3	3
5	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
6	Lazio	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.5	3
7	Genoa	2	1	0	1	+0	-1.1	3
8	Fiorentina	2	1	0	1	-1	-2.6	3
9	Verona	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.3	3
10	Lecce	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.1	1
11	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.8	1
12	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.3	1
13	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.3	1
14	Frosinone	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.2	1
15	Cagliari	2	0	1	1	-1	-2.4	1
16	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
17	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-2	-3.4	0
18	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
19	Torino	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0
20	Monza	2	0	0	2	-5	-2.8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.