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Eliteserien

Referee: D Higraff

Aalesund

T S T T T

1–1

Full-time

Lillestrom

T S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aalesund Lillestrom

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,5

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

3,8

3,7

Scored

0,7

2,0

Conceded

3,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

-2,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Eliteserien · 20/19 matches

Win Ø 34%

15%

53%

Points per game

0,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

65%

74%

Both score Ø 57%

40%

74%

Average goals

3,0

3,5

Scored

0,7

1,9

Conceded

2,4

1,6

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,77 xG 1,08

46% Possession 54%

16 Shots 14

5 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

8 Corners 5

1 Offside 3

9 Free kicks against 5

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aalesund 16. · Lillestrom 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Viking	20	14	3	3	+18	+5.0	45
2	Bodo/Glimt	19	14	2	3	+26	+8.8	44
3	Tromso	19	12	3	4	+8	+0.8	39
4	Molde	19	10	4	5	+20	+8.5	34
5	Brann	19	10	3	6	+11	-0.4	33
6	Lillestrom	19	10	2	7	+6	+4.6	32
7	Sarpsborg 08	20	9	3	8	+4	+2.3	30
8	Rosenborg	20	8	4	8	-1	+3.3	28
9	Odd	20	7	5	8	-1	+0.7	26
10	Stromsgodset	19	7	2	10	-2	-4.2	23
11	Ham-Kam	19	7	1	11	-14	-6.3	22
12	Haugesund	20	5	5	10	-11	-4.8	20
13	Valerenga	20	4	6	10	-8	-4.1	18
14	Sandefjord	19	4	6	9	-9	-10.3	18
15	Stabaek	18	4	4	10	-13	-0.2	16
16	Aalesund	20	3	1	16	-34	-3.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Viking	11	8	2	1	+14	+2.9	26
2	Brann	10	7	2	1	+14	+1.9	23
3	Molde	9	6	2	1	+15	+4.9	20
4	Bodo/Glimt	9	6	2	1	+13	+2.4	20
5	Tromso	10	6	2	2	+6	+3.6	20
6	Rosenborg	11	6	1	4	+4	+3.2	19
7	Lillestrom	10	6	0	4	+7	+3.3	18
8	Sarpsborg 08	10	5	1	4	+7	+0.6	16
9	Ham-Kam	10	5	1	4	+1	-3.5	16
10	Odd	9	4	2	3	+2	+1.7	14
11	Haugesund	9	4	2	3	+0	-2.8	14
12	Sandefjord	9	3	4	2	+7	-5.3	13
13	Stabaek	9	3	3	3	+2	-1.1	12
14	Stromsgodset	9	4	0	5	+1	-1.4	12
15	Aalesund	10	3	1	6	-8	+2.5	10
16	Valerenga	10	1	2	7	-9	-0.0	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bodo/Glimt	10	8	0	2	+13	+6.4	24
2	Viking	9	6	1	2	+4	+2.1	19
3	Tromso	9	6	1	2	+2	-2.8	19
4	Molde	10	4	2	4	+5	+3.6	14
5	Lillestrom	9	4	2	3	-1	+1.2	14
6	Sarpsborg 08	10	4	2	4	-3	+1.7	14
7	Valerenga	10	3	4	3	+1	-4.1	13
8	Odd	11	3	3	5	-3	-1.0	12
9	Stromsgodset	10	3	2	5	-3	-2.7	11
10	Brann	9	3	1	5	-3	-2.3	10
11	Rosenborg	9	2	3	4	-5	+0.1	9
12	Haugesund	11	1	3	7	-11	-2.0	6
13	Ham-Kam	9	2	0	7	-15	-2.8	6
14	Sandefjord	10	1	2	7	-16	-5.0	5
15	Stabaek	9	1	1	7	-15	+0.9	4
16	Aalesund	10	0	0	10	-26	-6.2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.