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Serie A

Referee: M Ferrieri Caputi

Fiorentina

S S T S T

2–2

Full-time

Lecce

U S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Lecce

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,5

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

1,8

1,3

Conceded

1,3

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Serie A · 1/1 matches

Win Ø 100%

100%

Points per game

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 100%

100%

Both score Ø 100%

100%

Average goals

5,0

3,0

Scored

4,0

2,0

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+3,0

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

1,35 xG 0,26

60% Possession 40%

9 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 3

2 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 3. · Lecce 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	2	2	0	0	+5	+2.4	6
2	Verona	2	2	0	0	+2	-1.0	6
3	Fiorentina	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.8	3
4	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
5	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
6	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
7	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
8	Lecce	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
9	Monza	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.9	3
10	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.5	3
11	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.8	1
12	Cagliari	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
13	Roma	2	0	1	1	-1	+2.6	1
14	Torino	2	0	1	1	-3	-2.0	1
15	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
16	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
17	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
18	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.8	0
19	Udinese	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0
20	Empoli	2	0	0	2	-3	-0.8	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Milan	1	1	0	0	+3	+2.6	3
2	Inter	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.9	3
3	Monza	1	1	0	0	+2	+1.0	3
4	Verona	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.8	3
5	Lecce	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.1	3
6	Frosinone	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.5	3
7	Roma	1	0	1	0	+0	+1.8	1
8	Torino	1	0	1	0	+0	+0.6	1
9	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.2	0
10	Sassuolo	1	0	0	1	-2	-0.9	0
11	Bologna	1	0	0	1	-2	+0.2	0
12	Genoa	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.8	0
13	Udinese	1	0	0	1	-3	-0.9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Fiorentina	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.8	3
2	Juventus	1	1	0	0	+3	+0.9	3
3	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+2	+0.6	3
4	Milan	1	1	0	0	+2	-0.2	3
5	Atalanta	2	1	0	1	+1	+1.8	3
6	Verona	1	1	0	0	+1	-0.2	3
7	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	-1.8	1
8	Cagliari	1	0	1	0	+0	-0.6	1
9	Roma	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.8	0
10	Lazio	1	0	0	1	-1	+0.1	0
11	Monza	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.9	0
12	Empoli	1	0	0	1	-2	-1.0	0
13	Torino	1	0	0	1	-3	-2.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.