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Serie A
Referee: L Pairetto
Lecce
T T U U T
1–1
Full-time
Monza
T T T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lecce Monza
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 9%
0%
17%
Points per game
0,3
0,5
Over 2.5 Ø 58%
33%
83%
Both score Ø 59%
67%
50%
Average goals
2,3
3,3
Scored
0,8
0,8
Conceded
1,5
2,5
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-1,7
This season — Serie A · 5/5 matches
Win Ø 0%
0%
0%
Points per game
0,4
0,0
Over 2.5 Ø 50%
20%
80%
Both score Ø 50%
60%
40%
Average goals
1,8
3,0
Scored
0,6
0,4
Conceded
1,2
2,6
Goal diff per game
-0,6
-2,2
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

53% Possession 47%
7 Shots 2
3 Shots on target 1
3 Blocked shots 1
0 Goalkeeper saves 2
8 Corners 5
1 Offside 0
18 Free kicks against 22
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lecce 17. · Monza 20.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Napoli 6 4 2 0 +9 14
2 Atalanta 6 4 2 0 +7 14
3 Milan 6 4 2 0 +6 14
4 Inter 6 4 0 2 +4 12
5 Udinese 5 3 1 1 +4 10
6 Roma 5 3 1 1 +1 10
7 Torino 6 3 1 2 +0 10
8 Juventus 5 2 3 0 +5 9
9 Lazio 5 2 2 1 +2 8
10 Salernitana 5 1 3 1 +3 6
11 Fiorentina 5 1 3 1 +0 6
12 Sassuolo 5 1 3 1 -2 6
13 Verona 5 1 2 2 -3 5
14 Spezia 6 1 2 3 -5 5
15 Empoli 5 0 4 1 -1 4
16 Bologna 5 0 3 2 -3 3
17 Lecce 5 0 2 3 -3 2
18 Cremonese 6 0 2 4 -5 2
19 Sampdoria 6 0 2 4 -8 2
20 Monza 5 0 0 5 -11 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lecce Monza
29′
🟨 Samuele Birindelli
35′
S. Sensi 0–1
41′
🟨 Stefano Sensi
Half-time 0–1
JoanGonzàlez 🔁
↦ Þ. Helgason
46′
46′
🔁 S. Molina
↦ S. Birindelli
Valentin Gendrey 🟨
48′
1–1 JoanGonzàlez
48′
Federico Di Francesco 🟨
52′
58′
🔁 A. Colpani
↦ N. Rovella
59′
🔁 M. Valoti
↦ M. Pessina
59′
🔁 P. Ciurria
↦ G. Caprari
A. Gallo 🔁
↦ G. Pezzella
62′
L. Colombo 🔁
↦ A. Ceesay
63′
Pablo Rodríguez 🔁
↦ F. Di Francesco
76′
K. Askildsen 🔁
↦ K. Bistrović
82′
Lameck Banda 🟨
83′
88′
🔁 José Machín
↦ S. Sensi
95′
🟨 Salvatore Molina
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Lecce

4-3-3
30 W. Falcone G
17 V. Gendrey D
5 M. Pongračić D
6 F. Baschirotto D
97 G. Pezzella D
14 Þ. Helgason M
42 M. Hjulmand M
8 K. Bistrović M
11 F. Di Francesco F
77 A. Ceesay F
22 L. Banda F
Bench (13)
16 JoanGonzàlez
25 A. Gallo
9 L. Colombo
99 Pablo Rodríguez
7 K. Askildsen
28 R. Oudin
19 M. Listkowski
83 M. Lemmens
29 A. Blin
1 M. Bleve
13 A. Tuia
21 F. Brancolini
93 S. Umtiti

Coach: M. Baroni

Monza

3-5-2
16 M. Di Gregorio G
4 Marlon D
3 Pablo Marí D
55 A. Izzo D
19 S. Birindelli M
32 M. Pessina M
6 N. Rovella M
12 S. Sensi M
30 Carlos Augusto M
47 Dany Mota F
17 G. Caprari F
Bench (15)
79 S. Molina
28 A. Colpani
10 M. Valoti
84 P. Ciurria
7 José Machín
38 W. Bondo
34 L. Marrone
8 A. Barberis
44 A. Carboni
9 C. Gytkjær
26 V. Antov
5 L. Caldirola
89 A. Cragno
80 S. Vignato
22 F. Ranocchia

Coach: G. Stroppa

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,30
U ✓
3,35
B
3,21
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,97
U2,5 ✓
1,84
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

L Pairetto · 119 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,6 / match
Average
⚽ Free kicks
25,4 / match
Average

🟥 Red cards: 0,27 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.