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Serie A

Referee: M Piccinini

Roma

U S S S U

3–0

Full-time

Monza

T S T T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Roma Monza

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

0,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

+0,5

-0,5

This season — Serie A · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,3

0,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

100%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,3

3,3

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

0,3

2,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-2,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

39% Possession 61%

14 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

5 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 7

0 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Roma 6. · Monza 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	4	2	2	0	+4	8
2	Napoli	3	2	1	0	+7	7
3	Lazio	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Atalanta	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Torino	3	2	1	0	+2	7
6	Roma	3	2	1	0	+2	7
7	Inter	3	2	0	1	+2	6
8	Juventus	3	1	2	0	+3	5
9	Fiorentina	3	1	2	0	+1	5
10	Sassuolo	4	1	2	1	-2	5
11	Salernitana	3	1	1	1	+3	4
12	Udinese	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Spezia	3	1	1	1	-2	4
14	Empoli	3	0	2	1	-1	2
15	Lecce	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Bologna	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Verona	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Sampdoria	3	0	1	2	-6	1
19	Cremonese	3	0	0	3	-3	0
20	Monza	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Lazio	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Juventus	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	Fiorentina	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Spezia	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Sassuolo	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Napoli	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Salernitana	2	1	0	1	+3	3
9	Inter	1	1	0	0	+3	3
10	Roma	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Atalanta	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Bologna	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Udinese	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Torino	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Empoli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Lecce	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Sampdoria	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Cremonese	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Monza	2	0	0	2	-2	0
20	Verona	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Atalanta	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Torino	2	2	0	0	+2	6
3	Napoli	2	1	1	0	+3	4
4	Roma	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Udinese	2	1	0	1	-1	3
6	Inter	2	1	0	1	-1	3
7	Milan	2	0	2	0	+0	2
8	Verona	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Salernitana	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Juventus	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Lazio	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Fiorentina	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Empoli	2	0	1	1	-1	1
14	Sassuolo	2	0	1	1	-3	1
15	Lecce	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Cremonese	2	0	0	2	-2	0
17	Bologna	2	0	0	2	-3	0
18	Spezia	1	0	0	1	-3	0
19	Monza	1	0	0	1	-4	0
20	Sampdoria	1	0	0	1	-4	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.