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La Liga

Referee: José Luis Munuera Montero

Real Madrid

S S S S T

2–0

Full-time

Las Palmas

T U T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Las Palmas

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,7

1,0

Scored

1,7

0,3

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — La Liga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

67%

17%

Average goals

2,8

1,0

Scored

1,8

0,3

Conceded

1,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

1,76 xG 0,72

47% Possession 53%

21 Shots 16

9 Shots on target 2

9 Blocked shots 6

2 Goalkeeper saves 7

7 Corners 2

6 Offside 2

7 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Las Palmas 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	7	5	2	0	+10	+8.4	17
2	Girona	6	5	1	0	+9	+3.3	16
3	Real Madrid	6	5	0	1	+5	+3.8	15
4	Ath Bilbao	6	4	1	1	+7	+5.6	13
5	Ath Madrid	5	3	1	1	+8	+3.2	10
6	Valencia	6	3	1	2	+3	+0.5	10
7	Vallecano	6	3	1	2	-2	+0.6	10
8	Sociedad	6	2	3	1	+2	+1.2	9
9	Cadiz	6	2	2	2	-2	-3.0	8
10	Betis	6	2	2	2	-5	-2.2	8
11	Sevilla	6	2	1	3	+2	-1.0	7
12	Osasuna	6	2	1	3	-1	-0.7	7
13	Villarreal	6	2	1	3	-2	-1.7	7
14	Getafe	6	2	1	3	-3	-3.6	7
15	Mallorca	7	1	3	3	-3	-3.0	6
16	Alaves	6	2	0	4	-4	-2.7	6
17	Las Palmas	6	1	2	3	-2	-1.9	5
18	Celta	6	1	1	4	-4	-0.6	4
19	Granada	6	1	0	5	-8	-6.9	3
20	Almeria	7	0	2	5	-10	+0.9	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Barcelona	3	3	0	0	+8	+4.0	9
2	Girona	3	3	0	0	+6	+2.1	9
3	Sociedad	4	2	2	0	+3	+1.5	8
4	Cadiz	3	2	1	0	+3	+3.5	7
5	Getafe	3	2	1	0	+2	+0.0	7
6	Ath Madrid	2	2	0	0	+4	+1.8	6
7	Sevilla	4	2	0	2	+3	+0.8	6
8	Ath Bilbao	3	2	0	1	+3	+4.5	6
9	Valencia	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.6	6
10	Real Madrid	2	2	0	0	+2	+2.8	6
11	Alaves	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.2	6
12	Betis	3	1	2	0	+1	+1.6	5
13	Las Palmas	3	1	2	0	+1	-0.2	5
14	Vallecano	3	1	1	1	-5	-1.4	4
15	Villarreal	3	1	0	2	-1	-2.0	3
16	Granada	3	1	0	2	-3	-3.3	3
17	Mallorca	3	0	2	1	-1	-2.9	2
18	Osasuna	3	0	1	2	-3	-0.9	1
19	Almeria	4	0	1	3	-5	+2.0	1
20	Celta	3	0	0	3	-4	+0.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Real Madrid	4	3	0	1	+3	+1.0	9
2	Barcelona	4	2	2	0	+2	+4.5	8
3	Ath Bilbao	3	2	1	0	+4	+1.1	7
4	Girona	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.2	7
5	Vallecano	3	2	0	1	+3	+2.0	6
6	Osasuna	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.2	6
7	Ath Madrid	3	1	1	1	+4	+1.5	4
8	Celta	3	1	1	1	+0	-1.1	4
9	Valencia	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.0	4
10	Villarreal	3	1	1	1	-1	+0.2	4
11	Mallorca	4	1	1	2	-2	-0.1	4
12	Betis	3	1	0	2	-6	-3.9	3
13	Sevilla	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.9	1
14	Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.3	1
15	Almeria	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.2	1
16	Cadiz	3	0	1	2	-5	-6.5	1
17	Las Palmas	3	0	0	3	-3	-1.7	0
18	Alaves	3	0	0	3	-4	-3.9	0
19	Getafe	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.6	0
20	Granada	3	0	0	3	-5	-3.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.