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La Liga

Referee: Mario Melero

Celta

S T U S U

1–3

Full-time

Real Madrid

S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Celta Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

50%

17%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,5

Conceded

1,5

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+1,0

This season — La Liga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 47%

30%

63%

Points per game

1,3

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

44%

41%

Both score Ø 56%

56%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

51% Possession 49%

8 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 8

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

1 Corners 7

1 Offside 0

23 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Celta 11. · Real Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	27	19	6	2	+32	63
2	Barcelona	27	18	5	4	+38	59
3	Real Madrid	27	17	6	4	+24	57
4	Sevilla	27	17	3	7	+18	54
5	Sociedad	27	12	9	6	+21	45
6	Betis	28	14	3	11	-3	45
7	Villarreal	27	9	13	5	+7	40
8	Granada	27	10	6	11	-11	36
9	Ath Bilbao	28	9	8	11	+6	35
10	Levante	28	8	11	9	-1	35
11	Celta	27	8	10	9	-6	34
12	Valencia	27	7	9	11	-5	30
13	Osasuna	27	7	8	12	-12	29
14	Cadiz	27	7	8	12	-19	29
15	Getafe	27	7	7	13	-11	28
16	Valladolid	27	5	11	11	-12	26
17	Elche	27	5	9	13	-17	24
18	Eibar	28	4	11	13	-11	23
19	Alaves	27	5	8	14	-20	23
20	Huesca	27	3	11	13	-18	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	14	10	3	1	+20	33
2	Barcelona	14	9	4	1	+22	31
3	Sevilla	14	10	1	3	+13	31
4	Real Madrid	13	9	1	3	+14	28
5	Granada	14	8	3	3	+4	27
6	Betis	14	8	2	4	+4	26
7	Ath Bilbao	14	7	3	4	+10	24
8	Sociedad	13	6	5	2	+13	23
9	Levante	14	5	7	2	+4	22
10	Villarreal	13	5	6	2	+4	21
11	Celta	13	6	3	4	+0	21
12	Valencia	13	5	5	3	+5	20
13	Getafe	14	5	4	5	+3	19
14	Osasuna	14	4	4	6	-6	16
15	Elche	13	3	6	4	-5	15
16	Alaves	14	3	5	6	-6	14
17	Valladolid	13	3	4	6	-7	13
18	Cadiz	14	3	4	7	-10	13
19	Huesca	13	2	5	6	-6	11
20	Eibar	14	1	6	7	-9	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	13	9	3	1	+12	30
2	Real Madrid	14	8	5	1	+10	29
3	Barcelona	13	9	1	3	+16	28
4	Sevilla	13	7	2	4	+5	23
5	Sociedad	14	6	4	4	+8	22
6	Villarreal	14	4	7	3	+3	19
7	Betis	14	6	1	7	-7	19
8	Cadiz	13	4	4	5	-9	16
9	Eibar	14	3	5	6	-2	14
10	Levante	14	3	4	7	-5	13
11	Valladolid	14	2	7	5	-5	13
12	Celta	14	2	7	5	-6	13
13	Osasuna	13	3	4	6	-6	13
14	Ath Bilbao	14	2	5	7	-4	11
15	Valencia	14	2	4	8	-10	10
16	Huesca	14	1	6	7	-12	9
17	Elche	14	2	3	9	-12	9
18	Alaves	13	2	3	8	-14	9
19	Getafe	13	2	3	8	-14	9
20	Granada	13	2	3	8	-15	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.