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La Liga

Referee: Juan Martínez

Barcelona

S S S U T

1–3

Full-time

Real Madrid

U S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,2

Scored

2,3

1,3

Conceded

0,7

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,7

+0,5

This season — La Liga · 4/5 matches

Win Ø 55%

50%

60%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 35%

50%

20%

Both score Ø 23%

25%

20%

Average goals

2,5

1,8

Scored

2,0

1,2

Conceded

0,5

0,6

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

52% Possession 48%

10 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 9

4 Blocked shots 2

6 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 7

0 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 10. · Real Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sociedad	6	3	2	1	+8	11
2	Villarreal	6	3	2	1	+0	11
3	Real Madrid	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Getafe	5	3	1	1	+2	10
5	Elche	5	3	1	1	+1	10
6	Cadiz	6	3	1	2	+0	10
7	Granada	5	3	1	1	-1	10
8	Betis	6	3	0	3	-2	9
9	Ath Madrid	4	2	2	0	+7	8
10	Barcelona	4	2	1	1	+6	7
11	Sevilla	4	2	1	1	+2	7
12	Osasuna	5	2	1	2	+1	7
13	Valencia	7	2	1	4	-2	7
14	Ath Bilbao	5	2	0	3	-1	6
15	Huesca	6	0	5	1	-2	5
16	Eibar	6	1	2	3	-2	5
17	Celta	6	1	2	3	-6	5
18	Alaves	6	1	1	4	-5	4
19	Valladolid	6	0	3	3	-4	3
20	Levante	5	1	0	4	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Villarreal	4	3	1	0	+4	10
2	Getafe	3	3	0	0	+5	9
3	Granada	3	3	0	0	+4	9
4	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+5	4
5	Barcelona	2	1	1	0	+4	4
6	Sociedad	3	1	1	1	+2	4
7	Valencia	3	1	1	1	+0	4
8	Elche	3	1	1	1	-2	4
9	Alaves	4	1	1	2	-2	4
10	Ath Bilbao	2	1	0	1	+1	3
11	Sevilla	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Osasuna	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Real Madrid	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Betis	3	1	0	2	-2	3
15	Celta	3	1	0	2	-4	3
16	Valladolid	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Huesca	3	0	2	1	-2	2
18	Eibar	4	0	2	2	-2	2
19	Cadiz	3	0	1	2	-4	1
20	Levante	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cadiz	3	3	0	0	+4	9
2	Sociedad	3	2	1	0	+6	7
3	Real Madrid	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Elche	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Betis	3	2	0	1	+0	6
6	Ath Madrid	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Sevilla	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Osasuna	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Barcelona	2	1	0	1	+2	3
10	Eibar	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Huesca	3	0	3	0	+0	3
12	Valencia	4	1	0	3	-2	3
13	Ath Bilbao	3	1	0	2	-2	3
14	Levante	4	1	0	3	-3	3
15	Celta	3	0	2	1	-2	2
16	Valladolid	3	0	1	2	-3	1
17	Getafe	2	0	1	1	-3	1
18	Villarreal	2	0	1	1	-4	1
19	Granada	2	0	1	1	-5	1
20	Alaves	2	0	0	2	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.