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La Liga

Referee: Alberto Undiano

Real Madrid

S S S T S

0–1

Full-time

Barcelona

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Barcelona

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 75%

83%

67%

Points per game

2,5

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,5

2,8

Scored

2,5

2,0

Conceded

1,0

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+1,2

This season — La Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 64%

60%

68%

Points per game

1,9

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

56%

64%

Both score Ø 54%

48%

60%

Average goals

2,9

3,6

Scored

1,7

2,6

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

48% Possession 52%

17 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 4

7 Blocked shots 0

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

8 Corners 6

2 Offside 2

16 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 3. · Barcelona 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	25	17	6	2	+40	57
2	Ath Madrid	25	14	8	3	+19	50
3	Real Madrid	25	15	3	7	+13	48
4	Alaves	26	11	7	8	-2	40
5	Getafe	25	10	9	6	+10	39
6	Sevilla	26	10	7	9	+7	37
7	Betis	25	10	6	9	-1	36
8	Sociedad	25	9	8	8	+5	35
9	Valencia	25	6	15	4	+4	33
10	Ath Bilbao	25	7	12	6	-3	33
11	Espanol	26	9	6	11	-8	33
12	Eibar	25	7	10	8	-2	31
13	Girona	26	7	10	9	-7	31
14	Leganes	25	7	9	9	-5	30
15	Levante	25	8	6	11	-8	30
16	Valladolid	26	6	8	12	-14	26
17	Celta	25	6	7	12	-7	25
18	Villarreal	26	4	11	11	-8	23
19	Vallecano	26	6	5	15	-17	23
20	Huesca	26	5	7	14	-16	22

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ath Madrid	13	10	2	1	+15	32
2	Barcelona	13	9	3	1	+24	30
3	Real Madrid	12	8	1	3	+12	25
4	Espanol	13	8	1	4	+1	25
5	Sevilla	12	7	3	2	+10	24
6	Eibar	13	6	5	2	+9	23
7	Alaves	12	6	5	1	+6	23
8	Getafe	12	7	1	4	+10	22
9	Betis	13	6	4	3	+2	22
10	Leganes	12	5	6	1	+6	21
11	Ath Bilbao	13	5	6	2	+1	21
12	Valencia	13	3	9	1	+6	18
13	Sociedad	12	4	4	4	+2	16
14	Celta	13	4	4	5	+1	16
15	Levante	12	4	3	5	-5	15
16	Huesca	13	3	4	6	-3	13
17	Vallecano	14	3	4	7	-9	13
18	Villarreal	14	2	6	6	-2	12
19	Valladolid	12	3	3	6	-5	12
20	Girona	13	2	6	5	-7	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	8	3	1	+16	27
2	Real Madrid	13	7	2	4	+1	23
3	Sociedad	13	5	4	4	+3	19
4	Girona	13	5	4	4	+0	19
5	Ath Madrid	12	4	6	2	+4	18
6	Getafe	13	3	8	2	+0	17
7	Alaves	14	5	2	7	-8	17
8	Valencia	12	3	6	3	-2	15
9	Levante	13	4	3	6	-3	15
10	Betis	12	4	2	6	-3	14
11	Valladolid	14	3	5	6	-9	14
12	Sevilla	14	3	4	7	-3	13
13	Ath Bilbao	12	2	6	4	-4	12
14	Villarreal	12	2	5	5	-6	11
15	Vallecano	12	3	1	8	-8	10
16	Celta	12	2	3	7	-8	9
17	Leganes	13	2	3	8	-11	9
18	Huesca	13	2	3	8	-13	9
19	Espanol	13	1	5	7	-9	8
20	Eibar	12	1	5	6	-11	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.