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La Liga

Referee: Alejandro Hernandez

Barcelona

U S S U S

2–2

Full-time

Real Madrid

S U S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barcelona Real Madrid

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

67%

Points per game

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

83%

67%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,8

3,7

Scored

2,5

Conceded

1,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+1,3

This season — La Liga · 34/34 matches

Win Ø 69%

76%

62%

Points per game

2,5

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

59%

74%

Both score Ø 55%

47%

62%

Average goals

3,2

3,5

Scored

2,6

2,4

Conceded

0,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

+1,9

+1,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

50% Possession 50%

11 Shots 17

4 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 5

5 Offside 2

8 Free kicks against 20

3 Yellow cards 5

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barcelona 1. · Real Madrid 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	34	26	8	0	+66	86
2	Ath Madrid	36	22	9	5	+35	75
3	Real Madrid	34	21	8	5	+45	71
4	Valencia	36	20	7	9	+25	67
5	Betis	36	18	5	13	+0	59
6	Villarreal	35	17	6	12	+9	57
7	Getafe	36	14	10	12	+9	52
8	Sevilla	35	15	6	14	-11	51
9	Girona	36	13	9	14	-9	48
10	Eibar	36	13	8	15	-7	47
11	Sociedad	36	13	7	16	+7	46
12	Celta	36	12	10	14	+3	46
13	Alaves	36	14	2	20	-11	44
14	Ath Bilbao	36	10	13	13	-5	43
15	Espanol	36	10	13	13	-10	43
16	Leganes	35	11	7	17	-14	40
17	Levante	35	9	13	13	-16	40
18	La Coruna	36	6	11	19	-35	29
19	Las Palmas	36	5	7	24	-48	22
20	Malaga	36	5	5	26	-33	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	16	14	2	0	+37	44
2	Ath Madrid	18	12	5	1	+22	41
3	Valencia	18	12	3	3	+19	39
4	Real Madrid	18	11	4	3	+28	37
5	Villarreal	18	11	2	5	+13	35
6	Betis	18	10	3	5	+4	33
7	Sevilla	17	9	5	3	+7	32
8	Getafe	18	9	4	5	+14	31
9	Sociedad	18	9	3	6	+17	30
10	Celta	18	7	8	3	+9	29
11	Leganes	17	8	4	5	+2	28
12	Girona	18	8	3	7	+5	27
13	Espanol	18	7	6	5	+1	27
14	Ath Bilbao	18	6	8	4	+4	26
15	Eibar	18	7	4	7	+6	25
16	Alaves	18	8	1	9	-4	25
17	Levante	18	6	6	6	-4	24
18	La Coruna	18	4	6	8	-9	18
19	Malaga	18	4	3	11	-12	15
20	Las Palmas	18	4	2	12	-22	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	18	12	6	0	+29	42
2	Real Madrid	16	10	4	2	+17	34
3	Ath Madrid	18	10	4	4	+13	34
4	Valencia	18	8	4	6	+6	28
5	Betis	18	8	2	8	-4	26
6	Villarreal	17	6	4	7	-4	22
7	Eibar	18	6	4	8	-13	22
8	Getafe	18	5	6	7	-5	21
9	Girona	18	5	6	7	-14	21
10	Alaves	18	6	1	11	-7	19
11	Sevilla	18	6	1	11	-18	19
12	Celta	18	5	2	11	-6	17
13	Ath Bilbao	18	4	5	9	-9	17
14	Sociedad	18	4	4	10	-10	16
15	Espanol	18	3	7	8	-11	16
16	Levante	17	3	7	7	-12	16
17	Leganes	18	3	3	12	-16	12
18	La Coruna	18	2	5	11	-26	11
19	Las Palmas	18	1	5	12	-26	8
20	Malaga	18	1	2	15	-21	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.