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La Liga

Referee: Javier Alberola

Real Madrid

S S S S S

2–2

Full-time

Celta

U U U T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Real Madrid Celta

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,8

0,8

Conceded

0,3

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

-0,3

This season — La Liga · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 41%

65%

17%

Points per game

2,3

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

48%

35%

Both score Ø 48%

43%

52%

Average goals

2,5

2,2

Scored

1,9

0,8

Conceded

0,6

1,4

Goal diff per game

+1,3

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

65% Possession 35%

15 Shots 5

4 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 3

3 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 10

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Real Madrid 1. · Celta 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	23	15	7	1	+30	52
2	Barcelona	24	16	4	4	+28	52
3	Getafe	24	12	6	6	+14	42
4	Ath Madrid	24	10	10	4	+8	40
5	Sevilla	24	11	7	6	+6	40
6	Villarreal	24	11	5	8	+10	38
7	Valencia	24	10	8	6	+1	38
8	Sociedad	23	11	4	8	+8	37
9	Granada	24	10	3	11	-2	33
10	Ath Bilbao	24	7	10	7	+3	31
11	Osasuna	24	7	10	7	-1	31
12	Betis	24	7	8	9	-5	29
13	Levante	24	9	2	13	-6	29
14	Alaves	24	7	6	11	-9	27
15	Valladolid	24	5	11	8	-7	26
16	Eibar	23	6	6	11	-10	24
17	Mallorca	24	6	3	15	-16	21
18	Celta	23	4	8	11	-13	20
19	Leganes	24	4	7	13	-18	19
20	Espanol	24	4	7	13	-21	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Barcelona	12	11	1	0	+27	34
2	Real Madrid	11	8	3	0	+16	27
3	Valencia	13	7	6	0	+10	27
4	Ath Madrid	12	7	4	1	+9	25
5	Granada	12	8	1	3	+8	25
6	Getafe	12	7	3	2	+11	24
7	Villarreal	12	6	4	2	+10	22
8	Ath Bilbao	12	6	3	3	+7	21
9	Sociedad	11	6	2	3	+11	20
10	Levante	11	6	2	3	+6	20
11	Betis	12	6	2	4	+5	20
12	Sevilla	12	5	5	2	+5	20
13	Mallorca	13	6	2	5	+3	20
14	Alaves	12	5	4	3	+6	19
15	Osasuna	12	4	5	3	+2	17
16	Eibar	11	5	1	5	-2	16
17	Celta	12	3	5	4	-3	14
18	Leganes	13	4	2	7	-6	14
19	Valladolid	11	2	7	2	+3	13
20	Espanol	12	1	4	7	-12	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Real Madrid	12	7	4	1	+14	25
2	Sevilla	12	6	2	4	+1	20
3	Getafe	12	5	3	4	+3	18
4	Barcelona	12	5	3	4	+1	18
5	Sociedad	12	5	2	5	-3	17
6	Villarreal	12	5	1	6	+0	16
7	Ath Madrid	12	3	6	3	-1	15
8	Osasuna	12	3	5	4	-3	14
9	Valladolid	13	3	4	6	-10	13
10	Espanol	12	3	3	6	-9	12
11	Valencia	11	3	2	6	-9	11
12	Ath Bilbao	12	1	7	4	-4	10
13	Betis	12	1	6	5	-10	9
14	Levante	13	3	0	10	-12	9
15	Eibar	12	1	5	6	-8	8
16	Granada	12	2	2	8	-10	8
17	Alaves	12	2	2	8	-15	8
18	Celta	11	1	3	7	-10	6
19	Leganes	11	0	5	6	-12	5
20	Mallorca	11	0	1	10	-19	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.