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Ligue 1
Referee: F Schneider
Lille
T T S S S
1–2
Full-time
Marseille
S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Lille Marseille
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
50%
67%
Points per game
1,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 25%
33%
17%
Average goals
2,5
1,3
Scored
1,0
1,2
Conceded
1,5
0,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+1,0
This season — Ligue 1 · 24/24 matches
Win Ø 54%
50%
58%
Points per game
1,7
2,0
Over 2.5 Ø 40%
42%
38%
Both score Ø 44%
42%
46%
Average goals
2,3
2,3
Scored
1,2
1,4
Conceded
1,0
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,2
+0,5
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%
13 Shots 5
3 Shots on target 2
4 Blocked shots 0
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
4 Corners 5
5 Offside 1
16 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Lille 4. · Marseille 2.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Paris SG 25 20 2 3 +46 62
2 Marseille 24 14 7 3 +12 49
3 Rennes 25 12 5 8 +6 41
4 Lille 24 12 4 8 +4 40
5 Monaco 25 11 5 9 +1 38
6 Montpellier 25 10 7 8 +4 37
7 Strasbourg 25 11 4 10 +3 37
8 Reims 25 9 9 7 +4 36
9 Nice 25 10 6 9 +2 36
10 Bordeaux 25 9 8 8 +7 35
11 Lyon 25 9 7 9 +12 34
12 Nantes 25 10 4 11 -2 34
13 Brest 25 8 9 8 -1 33
14 Angers 25 8 6 11 -9 30
15 Metz 25 6 10 9 -8 28
16 St Etienne 25 8 4 13 -14 28
17 Nimes 25 7 6 12 -12 27
18 Dijon 25 6 8 11 -7 26
19 Amiens 25 4 9 12 -18 21
20 Toulouse 25 3 4 18 -30 13

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Lille Marseille
9′
🟨 Duje Ćaleta-Car
30′
🟨 Jordan Amavi
35′
🟨 Darío Benedetto
Half-time 1–0
1–0 V. Osimhen
J. Bamba
51′
64′
🔁 M. Aké
↦ H. Sakai
66′
Reinildo 2–0
own goal
69′
D. Benedetto 2–1
V. Germain
Luiz Araujo 🔁
↦ L. Rémy
75′
T. Weah 🔁
↦ J. Onana
80′
83′
🔁 N. Radonjić
↦ D. Benedetto
89′
🔁 K. Strootman
↦ V. Rongier
90′
🟨 Kevin Strootman
90′
🟨 Marley Aké
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Lille

4-2-2-2
16 M. Maignan G
6 José Fonte D
28 Reinildo D
17 M. Çelik D
2 Tiago Djaló D
34 J. Onana
18 Renato Sanches M
10 J. Ikoné M
9 L. Rémy F
14 J. Bamba M
7 V. Osimhen F
Bench (7)
11 Luiz Araujo
22 T. Weah
29 D. Bradarić
26 J. Pied
20 N. Gaitán
1 Léo Jardim
33 C. Niasse

Coach: C. Galtier

Marseille

4-3-3
30 S. Mandanda G
2 H. Sakai D
17 B. Sarr F
3 Álvaro González D
18 J. Amavi D
15 D. Ćaleta-Car D
4 B. Kamara M
8 M. Sanson M
21 V. Rongier M
9 D. Benedetto F
28 V. Germain F
Bench (7)
36 M. Aké
7 N. Radonjić
12 K. Strootman
24 S. Khaoui
16 Y. Pelé
27 M. Lopez
29 F. Chabrolle

Coach: André Villas-Boas

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
2,21
U
3,23
B ✓
3,43
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
2,31
U2,5
1,61
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

F Schneider · 47 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
26,8 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,19 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.