Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Empoli
Pisa
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–1
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Benevento
|
24 | 17 | 6 | 1 | +28 | 57 |
| 2 |
Spezia
|
24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | +10 | 40 |
| 3 |
Frosinone
|
24 | 11 | 7 | 6 | +9 | 40 |
| 4 |
Crotone
|
24 | 11 | 4 | 9 | +7 | 37 |
| 5 |
Salernitana
|
23 | 10 | 6 | 7 | +5 | 36 |
| 6 |
Cittadella
|
24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +1 | 36 |
| 7 | Pordenone | 24 | 10 | 6 | 8 | +0 | 36 |
| 8 |
Virtus Entella
|
24 | 9 | 8 | 7 | +4 | 35 |
| 9 |
Perugia
|
24 | 9 | 6 | 9 | -5 | 33 |
| 10 |
Pescara
|
24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | +2 | 32 |
| 11 |
Juve Stabia
|
24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 32 |
| 12 |
Chievo
|
23 | 7 | 10 | 6 | +3 | 31 |
| 13 |
Ascoli
|
24 | 9 | 4 | 11 | -1 | 31 |
| 14 |
Pisa
|
23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | +1 | 30 |
| 15 |
Empoli
|
23 | 7 | 9 | 7 | -3 | 30 |
| 16 |
Venezia
|
24 | 6 | 10 | 8 | -4 | 28 |
| 17 |
Cremonese
|
24 | 6 | 8 | 10 | -5 | 26 |
| 18 |
Cosenza
|
24 | 5 | 8 | 11 | -1 | 23 |
| 19 | Trapani | 24 | 4 | 7 | 13 | -24 | 19 |
| 20 | Livorno | 24 | 3 | 5 | 16 | -21 | 14 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Cittadella
Empoli
Empoli
Crotone
Empoli
Chievo
Juve Stabia
Empoli
Empoli
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.