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Bundesliga

Referee: D Schlager

Dortmund

S U T S T

3–1

Full-time

Mainz

S S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dortmund Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,7

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,8

Conceded

0,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

+1,0

+1,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Bundesliga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 44%

38%

50%

Points per game

1,3

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

62%

50%

Both score Ø 58%

65%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,8

Scored

1,7

Conceded

1,6

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,6

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

2,78 xG 0,81

44% Possession 56%

18 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 3

6 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 4

2 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 8

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dortmund 12. · Mainz 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	27	20	5	2	+52	+47.5	65
2	Leverkusen	27	17	8	2	+28	+23.5	59
3	Ein Frankfurt	27	14	6	7	+15	+11.5	48
4	Mainz	26	13	6	7	+16	+0.2	45
5	M'gladbach	27	13	4	10	+4	-5.4	43
6	RB Leipzig	27	11	9	7	+7	-6.1	42
7	Freiburg	27	12	6	9	-3	+1.4	42
8	Augsburg	27	10	9	8	-6	-9.4	39
9	Wolfsburg	27	10	8	9	+8	-1.9	38
10	Stuttgart	27	10	7	10	+3	+5.7	37
11	Werder Bremen	27	10	6	11	-10	-1.0	36
12	Dortmund	26	10	5	11	+4	+12.7	35
13	Union Berlin	27	8	7	12	-13	-8.3	31
14	Hoffenheim	27	6	9	12	-16	-13.4	27
15	St Pauli	27	7	4	16	-11	-9.2	25
16	Heidenheim	27	6	4	17	-20	-10.4	22
17	Bochum	27	4	6	17	-29	-20.6	18
18	Holstein Kiel	27	4	5	18	-29	-16.8	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Bayern Munich	14	12	1	1	+32	+32.9	37
2	Leverkusen	14	9	3	2	+14	+15.3	30
3	Ein Frankfurt	14	8	3	3	+12	+13.6	27
4	Freiburg	13	8	2	3	+10	+3.9	26
5	RB Leipzig	13	7	4	2	+9	+1.9	25
6	Dortmund	13	7	3	3	+15	+12.4	24
7	M'gladbach	14	7	2	5	+5	+0.6	23
8	Mainz	13	6	4	3	+6	+3.3	22
9	Augsburg	13	6	4	3	+3	+3.8	22
10	Stuttgart	14	6	2	6	+6	+10.4	20
11	Union Berlin	13	4	5	4	-1	+2.4	17
12	Wolfsburg	14	3	6	5	-1	+1.2	15
13	Hoffenheim	14	3	5	6	-8	-2.8	14
14	Werder Bremen	13	3	4	6	-8	+1.6	13
15	St Pauli	13	3	3	7	-6	+0.1	12
16	Bochum	13	3	3	7	-9	-3.8	12
17	Holstein Kiel	14	3	2	9	-16	-7.5	11
18	Heidenheim	13	3	1	9	-12	-4.7	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Leverkusen	13	8	5	0	+14	+8.2	29
2	Bayern Munich	13	8	4	1	+20	+14.6	28
3	Mainz	13	7	2	4	+10	-3.2	23
4	Wolfsburg	13	7	2	4	+9	-3.1	23
5	Werder Bremen	14	7	2	5	-2	-2.5	23
6	Ein Frankfurt	13	6	3	4	+3	-2.2	21
7	M'gladbach	13	6	2	5	-1	-6.0	20
8	RB Leipzig	14	4	5	5	-2	-8.0	17
9	Stuttgart	13	4	5	4	-3	-4.7	17
10	Augsburg	14	4	5	5	-9	-13.2	17
11	Freiburg	14	4	4	6	-13	-2.5	16
12	Union Berlin	14	4	2	8	-12	-10.6	14
13	St Pauli	14	4	1	9	-5	-9.3	13
14	Hoffenheim	13	3	4	6	-8	-10.6	13
15	Heidenheim	14	3	3	8	-8	-5.6	12
16	Dortmund	13	3	2	8	-11	+0.3	11
17	Holstein Kiel	13	1	3	9	-13	-9.3	6
18	Bochum	14	1	3	10	-20	-16.8	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.